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10.05.2019: Euro may reverse trend (EUR, USD, CHF, GBP, GOLD)

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16 Shlédnutí:
Politics shapes market sentiment. Traders are awaiting the finale of the US-China trade conflict. News on Brexit is highly anticipated as well.
Traders are focused on the trade war. The situation has worsened after today's increase in tariffs on imported Chinese goods. However, there is still a hope that both parties will come to terms. If it happens, tariffs will be abandoned. Markets are trading mixed. It can be seen in the movement of the US dollar index. It is still held in a narrowing price range but it might break through in any direction.
On Friday, the US dollar lost ground against the Swiss franc after falling to a one-month low on Thursday. During the European session, the USD/CHF pair was trading at 1.0142. At that time, the pair was in a downward trend. Another safe-haven asset, gold, set rally as the US continued to insist on tariffs for Chinese goods.
Presently, further movements of the euro depend on whether the US and China will be able to reach a compromise. If the negotiations fail, the buyers are likely to be discouraged for a while. However, volatility in the EUR/USD pair is bound to increase regardless of the outcome of today's negotiations. In the European session, the pair was trading at 1.1236, signaling the start of an uptrend. A report on the US inflation rate will be released during the American session. It can provide support to the greenback and put the euro under pressure.
The pound sterling is trading within yesterday's range. The GBP/USD pair is located at 1.3012.The demand above 1.3025 remains extremely weak and the risk of the pair's decline is increasing. In case of a strong GDP report, the pound sterling might rebound.
The UK economic growth sped up significantly in the first quarter. The GDP expanded by 1.8% on year against an increase of 1.4% in the previous quarter. The reading was lower than forecasted. GDP growth was expected at 2%. The fact that local companies and consumers had been actively building up stockpiles in anticipation of Brexit boosted the domestic growth.
Presumably, the British economic upturn may lose momentum in the coming months, as the demand in retail and manufacturing sectors is likely to be lower due to high inventories.

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