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26.01.2021: Oil heads for $58 (Brent, USD/RUB).

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Shlédnutí:
Oil slipped to the red on Tuesday, but prices are likely to move notably higher in the short term. The ruble is trading with losses and sees no reasons for a rebound. The energy market stays under pressure. The pandemic is far from slowing down, keeping investors worried about the prospects of fuel demand. Besides, the implementation of stimulus measures in the US is being delayed. With the new US President, the problem of the stimulus package has not disappeared. Joe Biden’s administration is struggling to convince Republicans to approve a larger stimulus plan. Market participants keep monitoring the negotiation process. Obviously, the new US administration wants to create a strong momentum to accelerate the economic recovery. The rollout of a massive support program will definitely boost oil consumption. What is more, the cash injection will weaken the US dollar which is a bullish factor for crude prices. Oil fell in the morning trade on Tuesday. However, a deep correctional decline has not started yet. Both oil benchmarks continue to consolidate near the levels form the previous close. Brent futures contract with the nearest experaton was trading above 55 dollars a barrel. WTI futures were still holding near 52 dollars a barrel. In the mid-session, bulls managed to regain control and pushed the quotes back to positive territory. News from the Middle East supported bullish sentiment in the market. Thus, Iraq said it would reduce its daily oil output to 3.6 million barrels as a compensation for non-compliance with the OPEC+ deal last year. In addition, crude prices benefited from disruption of oil supply in Libya where a group of guards at oil facilities started a strike over a delay in salary payments. Amid the current background, oil may easily test new highs in the coming sessions. Brent has a high chance of hitting 58 dollars per barrel. The news background is mostly neutral for the Russian ruble. Western trading floors turned slightly negative, while the energy market is about to rise. Meanwhile, the emerging market currencies are trading mixed. In the early session, the Russian currency made an attempt to win back some of its losses from last week. Yet, the price failed to hold below 75 rubles per dollar. So, the ruble entered a new round of decline amid the lack of support. The peak of the tax payment period is over, and the pair has settled above the level of 75. It is likely to keep trading in the range between 75.00 and 77.50. The weakness of the ruble can be also attributed to the delayed stimulus measures in the US. Today, the release of the World Economic Outlook may weigh on the markets. If the projection turns out to be pessimistic, the ruble will drop further against the US dollar. In general, the trajectory of the ruble is likely to stay unchanged. Currently, the market activity is low ahead of the Fed’s meeting. In case of geopolitical risks, the Russian currency will retreat to the 76 mark against the US dollar.

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