Today, the central event of the day will be the publication of data on consumer inflation in the United States. They really are very important, because first of all, they will affect the American stock market.

According to the data provided, the CPI in annual terms should fall to 1.9% from 2.1%, but it is assumed that the January value of the indicator will add 0.3% against the revised upward 0.2% in December. The base CPI in annual terms, according to the forecast, may fall in growth to 1.7% vs. 1.8%, as for the monthly January value of the indicator, it should add 0.2% against the revised downward 0.2% in December.

The predicted values are really not impressive. But the market is still in a tense situation, as any more or less positive figures may become a pretext for resuming strong sales, following the example of those that took place on February 5. Against this background, we note strong demand for protective assets. Investors continue to buy gold, the Japanese yen, even despite very weak data on Japan's GDP, which bury the market's hopes that the local regulator will give up incentive measures this year, the Swiss franc and government bonds of the US Treasury. We draw your attention to the fact that the market picture is very similar to the one on Monday, February 5.

In our opinion, the stock market in the US will continue to be adjusted in any case, even if the reported data from the US does not show growth. Simply, this correction is likely to be more smooth. But if the figures are slightly better than expected, this could lead to a new wave of sell-off waves, which ultimately will respond in all financial markets. On this wave, we can expect a local increase in the dollar exchange rate.

Such a reaction of the market is connected with the fact that the positive news will only strengthen the expectation of not only continuation of the Fed's growth rates, but also the yield of US government bonds, which in turn will support the US dollar rate.

Forecast of the day:

The GBP / USD pair is above the level of 1.3850 on the wave of a general depreciation of the US dollar. But if the data released today from the US will be the basis for the resumption of sales in the markets, then, most likely, the pair will fall below this mark to 1.3740.

The USD / CAD pair is consolidating above the level of 1.2570 in anticipation of news from the US. If they put pressure on the risk of investors' appetite and oil prices continue to fall, then the pair may continue to rise to 1.2670.