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Long-term review

Risk assets recovered slightly against the US dollar, but the market continues to be in a bearish trend in general.

The situation around Turkey shows that the Turkish lira and the deby growth of Turkish banks makes all investors refrain also from new investments in risky assets.

Today, one can observe the continuation of a slight strengthening of the Turkish lira against the US dollar, however this harm indicates its stabilization after falling to a record low. Most likely, investors harbor some optimism from the press conference of the Minister of Finance of Turkey, which is due today, and on which Berat Albayrak will present an approximate plan for overcoming the crisis.

The growth of the Turkish currency was approximately 2.5% in line with the closing level of yesterday, and just a week the lira rose against the dollar by 9.9%. Many associate such growth with the promise of Qatar to invest 15 billion dollars in the Turkish economy.

As mentioned above, the press conference of the Turkish finance minister can support the lira, but it can lead to a resumption of its decline if Berat Albayrak does not talk about key issues that worry many investors.

A number of experts are waiting for more resolute measures from the authorities of Turkey. It is expected that in the near future, the Central Bank of the country will raise rates to curb inflation and the government will prepare reforms aimed at a serious decline in the share of borrowed funds in the private sector. It is also expected that Turkey can apply for financial assistance to its partners, which will allow executing short-term debt obligations of banks.

The British pound only strengthened slightly against the US dollar, and then declined again after the release of UK retail sales data, which in July this year resumed their growth. This is a very bad "call" for traders who expect a corrective pair growth in the near future.

As noted in the report, the increase in sales was provided by food and beverages during the World Cup. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, retail sales in the UK increased by 0.7% compared with June, and higher than increased by 3.5% compared to July last year. Economists had expected sales growth of 0.2%.

Exchange Rates 16.08.2018 analysis

As for the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair, demand for the pound will remain as long as the trade is above the 1.2660 support, but a return to the intermediate resistance 1.2735 is required to increase the upward correction, the breakthrough will open the direct course to the weekly highs of 1.2825 and 1.2890. While the breakthrough to 1.2660 will hit the pound towards the lows of 1.2570 and 1.2500.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Eder Anderson
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