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25.10.201802:48 Gold spreads its wings

Long-term review

The high demand for safe-haven assets allowed gold to break a crucial inverse correlation with the US dollar. For a long time, the precious metal was in the shadow of the US currency, but the favorable geopolitical situation and the breakthrough of the upper limit of the medium-term consolidation range of $1185-1215 per ounce allowed the bulls to resist the USD index, which still feels confident. It should show the weakness of the dollar, gold immediately go up. So it was at the auction on October 23, when Donald Trump took the old and criticized the current chairman of the Federal Reserve. The president believes that Jerome Powell is experiencing bouts of happiness when he raises the Federal funds rate. An unusual approach that made financial markets smile.

Overly inflated net shorts on the precious metal, increased demand for gold as a tool to hedge the volatility of stock indices and moderately negative medium-term prospects of the "greenback" are the key drivers of growth of XAU/USD. As the midterm elections in the U.S. are approaching, the growth of political risk is able to rein in bulls in the USD index. It is likely that the Democrats will celebrate the victory in the house of representatives, which increases the risks of impeachment. This is well understood by Donald Trump, who threw the voters a bone in the form of potential tax cuts for the middle class. I don't think that's gonna be enough to save the Republicans. Uncertainty will contribute to the growth of volatility of the US stock market and will force some speculators to withdraw from the dollar. But it was the strength of the US currency that prevented gold from breathing quietly for most of the year.

Dynamics of gold and the US dollar

Exchange Rates 25.10.2018 analysis

For a long time, precious metals turned a blind eye to trade wars, Brexit and the Italian political crisis. All these events are regarded as a positive external background for safe haven assets, which investors suddenly remembered in October. As a result, speculative demand for gold, Japanese yen and Swiss franc increased. At the same time, the inability of the analyzed asset to break the lower limit of the consolidation range of $1185-1215 per ounce was the reason for the closure of net short positions by hedge funds. They got rid of them at the fastest pace since March. However, the indicator is not far from the record highs, and its further reduction can raise the quotes of the XAU/USD higher.

Along with the US stock indices, the dollar and the geopolitical background, the fact that Reuters experts predict that the world economy will reach its ceiling in 2018 is important for gold. The fading effect of the fiscal stimulus will lead to a slowdown in US GDP, which will adversely affect the USD index. Slower than at present, the Fed's monetary policy normalization in 2019 also acts as a "bullish" factor for the precious metal.

Technically, the "Bat" pattern continues to be implemented on the daily gold chart. Its target of 88.6% is located near $1,255 per ounce.

Gold, daily chart

Exchange Rates 25.10.2018 analysis

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Marek Petkovich
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