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Perhaps all the attention of traders today was focused on the news that British Prime Minister Theresa May announced her resignation. This decision was quite predictable, which did not lead to a significant change in the market situation, except for a small profit taking on the British pound in the area of large support levels.

Theresa May announced today that she will resign on June 7, and the struggle for leadership in the Conservative Party will begin on June 10. Until that time, until the election of a new leader, May will remain as head of the party.

The main reason why British Prime Minister Theresa May left her post was another unsuccessful attempt to enlist the support of Parliament regarding the agreement on the conditions for the country's withdrawal from the EU. It is likely that her post will get a supporter of tougher Brexit than expected developed May's agreement. However, the current situation has already been taken into account in the quotes of the GBPUSD pair, which has been declining over the past two weeks. According to experts, among the main favorites in the struggle for the Prime Minister's seat is former foreign Minister Boris Johnson, as well as former Brexit Secretary Dominique Raab. Let me remind you that these two candidates are supporters of a sharp break in relations with the EU, which increases the likelihood of a hard Brexit.

However, do not rush and sell the pound at current lows. It should be understood that even if the new Prime Minister takes the side of a tougher Brexit, a break in relations with the EU without announcement still seems unlikely, as this will not change the balance of power in Parliament. First of all, we are talking about the Conservative Party, in which quite a few people are waiting for a milder development of the situation. On the other hand, most likely, it will be possible to forget about the second referendum, which Theresa May recently emphasized in her agreement.

As for today's fundamental data, retail sales failed to provide strong support to the British pound. According to the report, in April of this year, compared with March, the volume of retail sales in the UK did not change. The data were much better than forecasts of economists, who expected a decline in sales by 0.3%.

Exchange Rates 24.05.2019 analysis

The report of the National Bureau of Statistics suggests that consumers will continue to support the economy of the country in 2019, which can offset the limited costs of companies in the face of uncertainty with Brexit. As for April last year, the volume of retail sales grew by%, 2%.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Eder Anderson
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