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Exchange Rates 19.07.2019 analysis

Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 57.5115

Despite the fact that the euro was under pressure after Mario Draghi's words that the regulator is preparing to reduce the key rate due to low inflation and slow economic growth, the euro/dollar pair was in demand at the US trading session on July 18 and ended the day in the "green" zone. Thus, technically, the trend for the EUR/USD pair has changed to an upward one, as the price has fixed above the moving average line. However, just a few days ago, the pair had already carried out such a maneuver, then the bulls did not have enough strength to continue moving up. It may not be enough now. Especially against the background of an absolutely empty calendar of macroeconomic events in the States and the European Union on Friday, July 19. Already today or in the coming days, the euro may resume its decline, as in addition to expectations of a rate cut, the markets are now waiting for a reduction in the inflation target from "about 2%" to a lower one. This is what insider information from sources in the ECB, close to solving such issues, says. This only shows that the European regulator understands that the goal of 2% is unattainable in the coming years. What is the point of setting unattainable goals? And if this goal is not achievable, then the economy continues to slow down. This conclusion can be made by traders, which will lead to new sales of the pair.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1230

S2 – 1.1169

S3 – 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1292

R2 – 1.1353

R3 – 1.1414

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair is fixed above the moving average line. Now, therefore, it is recommended to buy the euro/dollar pair in small volumes with a target of 1.1292. Fundamental support for the euro is missing.

It is recommended to sell the euro if the bears manage to return the pair below the moving average line, which will change the trend to a downward one, and the target, in this case, will be the level of 1.1169.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – blue line unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – purple line unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Paolo Greco
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