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09.08.201910:51 Oil as an indicator of the prospects for the global economy (We expect the consolidation of WTI crude oil and a decrease in the AUD/USD pair)

The foreign exchange market actually froze in anticipation of new signals about the prospects for monetary policies of the world's largest central banks, as well as the publication of important economic data. All investor attention has shifted to the commodity market and here, the focus is on the situation around the dynamics of crude oil prices.

Quotes of crude oil have fallen by almost 20 percent over the past 7 days, thereby demonstrating the growth of the uncertainty factor that has returned to world markets, as well as the high concern of market participants for the prospects for global economic growth. At the moment, it is precisely the movement of oil prices that clearly shows investors' expectations regarding the prospects for the global economy, although of course, this fully reflects the dynamics of quotations of government bonds, primarily American and German. Yet, it is precisely the movement of oil prices that is the nerve that painfully responds to changes in investor sentiment.

Earlier, the increase in crude oil prices was based not only on the desire of OPEC+ to maintain relatively high prices by artificially lowering market supply, but also on really high demand for petroleum products against the backdrop of a growing global economy. But now, the opposite is true at the end of the ten-year cycle. OPEC + does everything to stimulate price increases, but a large-scale trade war between the US and China hinders their increase as the disruption of trade relations due to numerous trade wars forces market players to exercise a high degree of caution, which is noticeable in increased volatility when quotes fell or grew by more than 5 percent during the trading session. Quotes fell or grew by more than 5 percent.

In our opinion, this state of affairs will continue until it becomes completely clear whether the trade confrontation between Washington and Beijing will continue or not, that is, if the Fed decides to continue lowering interest rates in order to support economic growth in the United States or further take a wait and see attitude. In fact, we can say that at the present rather difficult time, it is the dynamics of crude oil prices that fully reflects all the fears and aspirations of investors as a vivid example of a indicator of market sentiment.

Forecast of the day:

The price of WTI crude oil is likely to remain in the range of 50.50-53.50 today amid expectations of new signals about the prospects for trade relations between the United States and China. However, if the positive does not appear on the weekend, then next week prices may start with a decline. In this case, a breakthrough of the lower limit of the range may lead to a fall in prices to $ 48.00 per barrel.

The AUD/USD pair slowed down the growth, which was caused by the increase in demand for risky assets. The expectation of lower RBA interest rates, as well as a deterioration in market sentiment, could lead to a price reversal and its decline to 0.6680.

Exchange Rates 09.08.2019 analysis

Exchange Rates 09.08.2019 analysis

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Pati Gani
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