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4-hour timeframe

Exchange Rates 21.08.2019 analysis

Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – sideways.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -42.8266

On August 21, the EUR/USD currency pair began a new round of upward correction to the moving average line. Today, as yesterday, no important macroeconomic publications are planned in the States and the eurozone. Late in the evening, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting will be released. However, as we have already pointed out to traders before, these protocols rarely cause a market reaction. The thing is that the protocols usually contain information that market participants already know. Accordingly, the publication of the protocol turns into a loud enough event, but almost meaningless. What can we expect from the FOMC protocol today? From our point of view, nothing special. The Fed, led by Jerome Powell, made it clear that Trump would not follow suit and thoughtlessly cut rates too. If macroeconomic indicators continue to deteriorate, then we will be talking about a new easing of monetary policy. While this is not the case, Powell and the company will leave monetary policy unchanged. The only thing that can be learned from the evening publication is the mood of each member of the monetary committee. Although their attitude can be understood from the individual interviews. For example, the last speaker was the head of the Boston Fed Eric Rosengren. He said that he is not ready to support the further reduction of the key rate, as he sees no signs of deterioration of the macroeconomic situation in the United States over the past month. Rosengren also believes that it is dangerous to reduce the cost of loans and stimulate the population to lend at this time. "I want to make sure that we are going in the direction of slowing the economy before voting for a rate cut," Rosengren concluded. The euro/dollar is still prone to fall. Only overcoming the resistance will break the euro for some time.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1047

S2 – 1.0986

S3 – 1.0925

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1108

R2 – 1.1169

R3 – 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair started a new round of correction. Thus, it is recommended to wait for the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down, which will indicate the completion of the correction, and sell the euro with the targets of 1.1047 and 1.0986. Purchases of the euro/dollar pair are still fraught with increased risks.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Paolo Greco
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