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4-hour timeframe

Exchange Rates 21.08.2019 analysis

Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 77.7873

Donald Tusk did not waste time and, without much thought and deliberation, he immediately rejected the "generous offer" proposal of Boris Johnson to remove the "backstop" clause from the Brexit agreement. We didn't expect anything else. Moreover, even Boris Johnson himself did not expect that Tusk would suddenly change his mind and approve new negotiations. Thus, formally, Johnson took a step towards the European Union, and the European Union refused to resume negotiations since London did not make any real proposals for consideration. For the UK and the British pound, it is still important not to quarrel between the leaders of the EU and the Kingdom, but to resume the work of the Parliament, which has been on vacation in recent weeks. It is with the resumption of its work associated with many events and processes that will be very important for the whole Brexit. First, market participants are waiting for a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson from Jeremy Corbyn, who has already been announced. Further, the fork of possible scenarios will depend on whether the Parliament will support the vote. If so, the process of firing Johnson will begin, who may simply refuse to leave his post. Then, politicians will have to turn to Queen Elizabeth II with a request to remove Johnson from his duties, which has never been in the history of Great Britain. If Johnson remains at the head of the state, the new season of series "Promoting Tough Brexit Through Parliament" will begin. The first season was called "Promotion of Theresa May's deal through Parliament." In this case, it will be interesting to observe the actions of Boris Johnson, who can suspend the work of Parliament and call new parliamentary elections. As you can see, the autumn for the British pound will be very hot. So far, the pound/dollar pair is slightly above the moving average, which gives it a little peace of mind and security. Bears still took a break but did not leave the market. We believe that the pound can resume its decline at any time, and technical indicators will help to determine this point.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2146

S2 – 1.2115

S3 – 1.2085

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2177

R2 – 1.2207

R3 – 1.2238

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair corrected for the moving average and resumed its slight upward movement. Thus, long positions formally remain relevant to the targets of 1.2207 and 1.2238. However, it is not recommended to open long positions with big lots. The mood of the currency market at any time can change back to "bearish".

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Paolo Greco
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