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19.09.201914:42 Gold missed a blow from the Fed

Long-term review

The Fed will resort to aggressive monetary expansion if things get worse with the announcement by Jerome Powell that the US economy is doing well and also the federal funds rate is down from 2.25% to 2% for preventive purposes. This has made a wicked golden joke. If in 2014-2018, a "bearish" trend established against the background of normalization of monetary policy in the precious metal market. Then, in 2019, it changed to "bullish" due to the Fed's intentions to lower the rate and the September FOMC meeting left more questions than answers. Why did the XAU/USD pair go decline if the federal funds rate fell by 25 bp and the Committee's forecasts indicate its readiness to reduce it to 1.75% by the end of 2019? Where is the logic?

In my opinion, the dog is buried in the recently increased correlation of gold with American stock indices. Jerome Powell dismisses suspicions that he is following Donald Trump, but his speeches at press conferences say that the central bank is dancing in tune to the stock market. The chairman dropped the S&P 500 several times and then was forced to justify himself to rectify the situation. The last time this happened was in July when the phrase "mid-cycle adjustment" shocked investors. In September, Powell was careful. "The economy is strong, but if its condition worsens, the Fed will aggressively lower rates." These words pulled the S&P 500 from the bottom, where the stock index fell after the publication of FOMC forecasts.

S&P 500 reaction to the results of the Fed meeting

Exchange Rates 19.09.2019 analysis

Gold changed its side in 2019. If in previous years it went in the opposite direction to the US dollar, now it is sensitive to the behavior of the American stock market. It behaves like a classic safe-haven asset. Therefore, Powell's optimism led to the sale of precious metals. It seems that a recession should be expected only if the Fed begins to actively cut bets until that moment you can sleep peacefully. Moreover, there is a thaw in relations between Washington and Beijing. The risks of promiscuous Brexit after parliament passes a law on the need for a prime minister's letter to the EU to prolong the transition period and Saudi Arabia claims that it will be able to quickly restore oil production after the attacks on its manufacturing sector.

Thus, the degree of the three key international threats has somewhat weakened, but the Fed still lowered the rate. Does the central bank still listen to criticism of Donald Trump, who once again accused Jerome Powell of shortsightedness and inability to communicate with financial markets? Say, the Fed chairman has a small intestine to reduce the rate by 1 pp, or even bring it to zero!

Technically, the "Surge and reversal of acceleration" pattern on the daily gold chart is relevant. The bears stormed the trend line of the burst stage and if they manage to gain a foothold below $1,498 per ounce, the risks of continuing the correction to $1462 and $1404 will increase. We are talking about the level of 23.6% of the last rising wave, as well as the target at 88.6% based on the "Shark" pattern. On the contrary, the bulls are counting on the return of quotes above the trend line of the burst stage.

Gold daily chart

Exchange Rates 19.09.2019 analysis

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Marek Petkovich
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