Nothing seemed to portend trouble, and even the data on unemployment in Europe came out slightly better than forecasts, since its level did not remain unchanged, but fell from 7.5% to 7.4%. However, trouble came from where they had not expected. Preliminary data on inflation in Germany showed a slowdown from 1.4% to 1.2%. They predicted a slowdown of only 1.3%. Given the fact that these data are coming out ahead of the publication of inflation throughout the euro area, investors quite reasonably assumed that they might turn out to be slightly worse than expected. So it is not surprising that the single European currency immediately began to lose its position.

So, the most anticipated news of today is of course the preliminary data on inflation in Europe. Forecasts so far indicate that it should remain unchanged. That is, at the level of 1.0%. However, given yesterday's inflation data in Germany, there is every reason to believe that inflation in Europe will decline. It is this fear that is driving the market now. But besides this, the final data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector are published in Europe, which should confirm its decline from 47.0 to 45.6. That is, the situation in the European industry is only continuing to deteriorate, which indicates a worsening of the general economic situation in the eurozone.

Inflation (Europe):

Meanwhile, in the United States, the final data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector are also released, which should only confirm that it has grown from 50.3 to 51.0. That is, the state of industry in the United States is only improving, which means that no recession threatens America. At least for the foreseeable future.

Manufacturing PMI (US):

Following a slight pullback towards 1.0958, the EUR/USD pair once again gained a pack of short positions and, as a fact, once again updated its lowest of the current year. In fact, the past fluctuation provided an opportunity to regroup the trading forces, after the initial breakdown, the basis of the past correction. Considering what is happening in general terms, we see that the main downward trend is continuing to form, and the quote is already at the levels of May 2017 and this is not the limit.

It is likely to assume that the downward mood will remain in the market for some time, where the closest point of the periodic support is located around 1.0850. Just near this value, it is likely to expect a stop with a possible pullback.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

• Long positions, we consider if the pivot point is in the region of 1.0850. In this case, confirmation is necessary in the form of stagnation with subsequent testing.
• Short positions in this case remain in the direction of the level of 1.0850.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the main range of indicators at hourly and daily intervals signal a further downward trend. In turn, short-term periods in the form of minute charts signal a neutral nature, due to slight stagnation.