The year begins very cheerfully and interestingly which was immediately followed with a slight panic in the oil market caused by a slight increase in tension between Iran and the United States. The increase in tension is really only small, since Donald Trump announced that there will be no war, and the matter will be limited only to new sanctions against the Islamic Republic. It must be understood that this will inevitably lead to a gradual increase in oil prices, which have managed to decline significantly due to the general panic caused by the rocket fire of the two military bases in Iraq on which American troops are based. The attack was so massive that not a single American soldier was injured. Apparently this circumstance is the reason for the peaceful behavior of Donald Trump. However, the complete confusion led to a collapse in oil prices, which is usually accompanied by an increase in the value of the dollar.
At the same time, one should not forget about macroeconomic statistics, which, of course, are not as interesting as a possible military adventure of the United States in relation to Iran. However, ADP data showed employment growth of 202 thousand, against 124 thousand in the previous month. Of course, they were expecting growth, but from 67 thousand to 151 thousand. That is, not only the data themselves came out better than forecasts, but also the previous ones were reviewed for the better. In other words, the dollar already had reason for growth, due to extremely good data that precede tomorrow's publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor.
Employment Change from ADP (United States):
The confrontation with Iran will obviously gradually fade away, and move into the background. In the end, the decision to introduce new sanctions has already been made, and now the only question is what exactly will they be. Therefore, the first thing you should pay attention to today is the unemployment rate in Europe, which the truth should remain unchanged. Now, it's worth looking at them only for the sake of general development. Although the data on unemployment claims in the United States are of much greater interest. Naturally, for the simple reason that everyone has in mind tomorrow's publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor. Thus, the total number of applications for unemployment benefits should be reduced by 34 thousand. In particular, the number of initial applications may decrease by 3 thousand, while the number of repeated applications by 31 thousand. In other words, expectations are positive, so that the dollar can continue to strengthen. The truth is not as much as yesterday.
Number of Initial Jobless Claims (United States):
From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the past days were in a downward direction, where the quotes pretty quickly went down to the level of 1.1100, and then locally slowed down. In fact, the recovery process pulls the quote towards the control level of 1.1080, where a rebound was repeatedly noticed.
In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we see that the main movement of the global downward trend is unchanged and in the structure of which, there is still an oblong correction.
It is likely to assume that the quotes will try to draw closer to the coordinates of 1,1100, where periodic support was previously found. If the value of 1.1100 declines, then the level of 1.1080 will be the main target for sellers.
Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:
- Long positions are considered in case of price fixing higher than 1,1130.
- Short positions are considered to the side of 1.1100 from the current values. Further progress will be considered after fixing the price lower than 1.1100 to the side.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments unanimously occupy the downward side relative to all the main time periods.
