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Exchange Rates 14.02.2020 analysis

By the end of this week, many analysts have understood the situation with the constantly falling euro. It turned out that investors expected a weakening single currency ahead of new data on German GDP. Experts believe that the rapid collapse of the euro can smooth out an extremely negative reaction to this macroeconomic report.

A kind of "preparation for the fall" could not but affect the dynamics of the European currency, and for the worse. According to experts, such behavior is akin to learned helplessness, a state where a person does not feel the connection between effort and result. No matter what the euro does, no matter how it tries to rise, all its efforts are crossed out, and there was no difference between victory and defeat. However, nobody will succeed in knocking on the closed door for a long time, and after a while, the euro has surrendered.

Experts do not have bright hopes regarding the upcoming report on Germany's GDP, the locomotive of the European economy. They are sure that in the fourth quarter of 2019, economic growth in the country will not exceed 0.1%. As for inflation in Germany, in January 2020 it will remain the same with -1.7%. The eurozone trade surplus is also expected to fall to 19 billion euros.

Another, no less important factor that does not allow the euro to rise, but supports the dollar well, is the data on the level of inflation excluding food products and energy in the United States for January of this year. According to experts, this is a key indicator important for the further dynamics of the EUR / USD pair. According to the report, consumer inflation rose at a moderate pace, but this did not save the EUR / USD pair from further decline.

On Thursday, February 13, experts recorded an upward correctional movement in the pair, which, as it turned out, was symbolic. Subsequently, rising to 1.0877, the tandem continued to slide in a downward spiral.

Exchange Rates 14.02.2020 analysis

According to experts, during the current week, the EUR / USD pair shows a recoilless downward movement. At a certain point, the tandem lingered a bit at 1.0852 and then headed towards the bottom.

Exchange Rates 14.02.2020 analysis

On Friday, February 14, the pair runs in the range of 1.0837–1.0838, trying to move on, but the efforts are ineffective. The greenback is relatively stable, and the euro again has to fight at the closed door and make a lot of effort to stay afloat.

Exchange Rates 14.02.2020 analysis

Analysts added that right now the average volatility of the EUR / USD pair has grown to 48 points per day, and the correction has completed. The classic tandem has reached minimum annual values and is not going to stop. To paraphrase a well-known saying, we can say that there is no limit to falling.

The steady decline in the EUR / USD pair is causing market concern. Main concerns are on the euro, but the greenback also feels a hidden threat from such an unstable neighborhood. Recall that on Tuesday, February 11, a minimum of the year was reached in the EUR / USD pair, when the tandem reached the level of 1.0890. The downward movement continues today, even without significant news occasions and amid growing risk appetites. Experts fear that this recession will turn into a snowball, which will be very difficult to stop.

Despite the extremely unfavorable situation for the euro, analysts do not lose hope of its recovery in the long term. At the same time, they expect that the euro will be able to push off from two-year lows, although they do not exclude their next update.

Over the past two years, there has been a steady deterioration in the forecast for the growth of the European economy compared with the forecast for the growth of the US. According to experts, a rise of up to 1.8% is predicted for the US economy, and only up to 1% for the eurozone economy. As a result, the euro again loses and experts believe that it is now cheaper compared to the greenback, which has recently been more confident than ever. When examining the EUR / USD pair in a long-term context, experts expect a confident update of current lows and achieve Euro-dollar price parity.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Larisa Kolesnikova
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