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Donald Trump revived the currency market, which was in a comatose state, andeven data on inflation in the United States could not bring it out of this state. But under the guise of the state of affairs with the coronavirus in Europe, the President of the United States, imposed a thirty-day ban on entering America from the Old World. The measure is extremely tough, and not the fact that is justified. Moreover, restrictive measures by the United States were much lenient during the peak of the spread of coronavirus in China. However, this decision is furnished in the best traditions of television shows. Donald Trump announced this during an appeal to the nation, as if it was a declaration of war. At the same time, the forty-fifth president of the United States argued this decision in such a way that it cannot be called anything other than a kick in Europe. He assured everyone that health professionals had assured him that Europe was not capable of providing security in epidemiology. Thus, the rigidity of the measures themselves, and how all this was arranged, eventually led to the weakening of the single European currency.

Exchange Rates 12.03.2020 analysis

At the same time, as noted above, the market essentially ignored inflation data in the United States, which showed a decrease from 2.5% to 2.3%. Although, a decrease in inflation almost unambiguously indicates that the Federal Reserve System will continue to lower the refinancing rate. And in theory, inflation data should have led to the strengthening of the single European currency.

Inflation (United States):

Exchange Rates 12.03.2020 analysis

In many respects, ignoring inflation data in the United States is due to both the information panic spread by the media and the expectation of today's meeting of the European Central Bank. The fact is that, the uncertainty only increases despite the fact that no one seems to be expecting anything else from Christine Lagarde, except for the next reduction in the deposit rate especially if you pay attention to yesterday's speech by the head of the European Central Bank, which was entirely devoted to the risks posed by the coronavirus. The intrigue lies in the fact that the heads of the Federal Reserve System and the Bank of England spoke with exactly the same agenda right before emergency meetings. And as a result of which, interest rates were reduced. Therefore, we should not exempt the European Central Bank from presenting a big and unexpected surprise today. So if the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England will reduce their refinancing rates and these decisions were not so unexpected, then the situation with the European Central Bank is somewhat different. In fact, this possibility was discussed only once immediately after the Federal Reserve's refinancing rate cut until yesterday's speech by Christine Lagarde. They didn't discuss it for long, just a day or two. After that, this idea was forgotten, because it seemed fantastic. Now, let's say there are options.

Refinancing Rate (Europe):

Exchange Rates 12.03.2020 analysis

From the point of view of technical analysis, we see the preservation of increased activity in the market, where the quote locally went down to the area of 1.1250, but then returned to the level of 1.1300. In fact, we see a partial recovery process, relatively large-scale inertial course, but the quote still has a kind of overbought, which is not paid attention to, due to the strong external background.

In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we see signs of a change in the medium-term downward trend, due to the same inertia; however, due to the characteristic speculative attitude and the pressure of the external background, the signals about a change in the trend may be false.

We are probably waiting for a characteristic ambiguity in anticipation of the ECB meeting, where speculative interest will be generated. At first, the amplitude in the region of 1.1260 / 1.1333 is not excluded, where bursts of activity will appear relative to the rate depending on the decision of the regulator.

The trading recommendation will depend on your desire for risks, since it would be most logical to sit out of the background outside the market, but if you consider yourself to be a speculator, it is possible to play on jumps, where the reference coordinates are at 1.1260 / 1.1333 for now.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the minute and hour periods are in the process of recovery, signaling a sale while the daily plots are looped at an earlier inertia, signaling about purchases.

Exchange Rates 12.03.2020 analysis

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Dean Leo
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