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Long-term review

The value of the first cryptocurrency has lost more than half of its value since February amid the flight of investors from risky assets. In fact, the collapse of financial markets became the catalyst for panic, shook everything without exception, indices flew by ten percent, while shares of developed companies lost a quarter or more of their value. Returning to the crypto industry, we see that the first hundred cryptocurrencies lost an average of 40% of their value in a few days, reaching the levels below the crypto winter. Can this be considered the end of the crypto industry? I do not think so, in this case, the stock market, which has lost an equally significant share, can face a similar dividend.

The flight of investors into the US dollar has affected all markets, and this is logical, since it is most logical to lock in and wait out with mass panic and increasing risks. The next step is based on the theory that when everything collapses, the most liquid instruments begin to pick up from the bottom. In this case, we will talk about Bitcoin, which suddenly appeared at the levels of the spring of last year. It turns out that BTC returned to where it initially experienced some of the worst periods after fleeing last 2017, and it was from here that crypto spring came.

You have already guessed from the context that this is a kind of variable bottom, and if there is a rebound, it will come from the base where this has already happened. It turns out that if crypto investors decide to bribe with a future perspective, now is the right time.

Exchange Rates 25.03.2020 analysis

Breakdown of the past days:

• Galaxy Digital founder, Michael Novogratz, is convinced that the coronavirus pandemic could play into the hands of Bitcoin, which will receive a new round of growth amid the global economic crisis.

• The People's Bank of China reminded investors that cryptocurrency, in particular Bitcoin, is a risky asset, and crypto exchanges overestimate trading volumes, misleading users. All this was written by the regulator in a document published on the official website on "Protecting the rights and interests of consumers of financial services".

• The head of Grayscale Investments and Digital Currency Group Barry Silbert, who has substantial reserves of crypto assets, said that a collapse is a great time to buy Bitcoin at a discount.

• Bloomberg analysts suggest that the new stimulus package that US President Donald Trump is so eager to promote can support cryptocurrency in particular BTC.

Current development and prospects

Partial recovery of the first cryptocurrency [BTC] has already led to the return of quotes to the region of $ 6500 / $ 7000, which means that recovery is more than 70% in value from a minimum of [$ 3858]. In this development, we see only a small part of a possible recovery, since the quote on March 12 has not yet managed to return 100% to levels before the decline.

Regarding the base point, it was previously noted that the minimum point of $ 3858 coincided with the crypto winter range of $ 3150 / $ 4200, which means that in theory, we can get an influx of new injections that will continue to be stocked with bitcoin in the future growth and repetition of the spring 2019 scenario.

It can be assumed that if the quote still manages to fix higher than $ 7000 in the D1 period, then the chance of moving towards $ 8500 will be a very real development in the near future. There is also an alternative scenario in the existing development, which reflects the repetition of the plot of the crypto winter, where in this case the interaction range will be located in the region of $ 4820 / $ 7000.

As you may have guessed, the second development option can drag Bitcoin into a long and painful wandering.

Exchange Rates 25.03.2020 analysis

The general background of the cryptocurrency market

Analyzing the general market capitalization, we see that capitalization has slipped to the levels of early 2019 due to the collapse of the cryptocurrency market.

If we consider the volume chart in general terms, we will see that the current value of $ 143 billion is even lower than the average indicator for the end of last year, which means that an increase of about $ 40-45 billion is still possible.

Exchange Rates 25.03.2020 analysis

The emotion index, which is also fear and happiness of the crypto market, continues to be at a low level of 13, which leads to panic and reluctance of market participants to invest in risky assets. Let me remind you that the index fell below 10 at the time of the collapse.

Exchange Rates 25.03.2020 analysis

Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of time frames (TF), we see that the indicators of technical instruments with respect to all the main time intervals are prone to a further upward trend due to the recent partial recovery of the course.

Exchange Rates 25.03.2020 analysis

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Gven Podolsky
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