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Exchange Rates 27.03.2020 analysis

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 206.8643

For the EUR/USD currency pair, the fourth trading day of the week ended in an upward movement. The pair attempted to overcome the moving average line and managed to do so almost immediately. Thus, at the moment, the upward movement continues unimpeded, almost the same as a week ago, when there was a strong fall in the euro. The Heiken Ashi indicator continues to color the bars purple, which indicates that there is no correction. We are now witnessing a mirror movement to the one that was observed from March 9 to 19. Thus, once again, you can make sure that the US dollar did not rise in price quite fairly, and the movement of the euro/dollar pair does not differ at this time in logic and validity.

While the macroeconomic indicators of the United States have begun to deteriorate seriously, caused by the "coronavirus" epidemic and the quarantine, the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell "only admits" the probability that the economy is already in recession. We have already said that the concept of "recession" is rather vague. Formally, the decline in growth by 0.1% compared to the previous report is already a recession. However, experts and economists around the world prefer to call a recession a more significant and longer decline in economic growth. The fact that the recession is now in the States can be said even without looking at macroeconomic statistics. The rate of GDP growth in the last year and a half has only decreased from a maximum of 3% to the current 2.1%. Thus, the economy has been slowing for at least a year. Not least because of Donald Trump's trade wars. Now the "coronavirus" epidemic around the world is clearly slowing down the world economy even more. Recent reports from China, the center of the epidemic, have shown that it is quite possible to expect a decline in indicators such as retail sales and industrial production by 20-30 percent. However, China has already managed to localize the epidemic and indicators have begun to recover. In the States, the epidemic has not even entered its peak phase yet, according to medical experts. And the number of cases already exceeds 70,000 (slightly more only in Italy and China). Thus, at the peak of the epidemic in America, there may be several hundred thousand infected citizens. Thus, in the United States, we are waiting for the most serious cuts in all macroeconomic indicators. And the main thing is that everything does not turn out to be not just a recession for America, but a depression.

Jerome Powell's speech yesterday was extremely vague and left a lot of questions. Powell said that "there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the economy right now." In what sense? Everything that is happening now is normal? The Fed chief said: "The pandemic is putting pressure on the US economy, but the current situation may lead to a recovery in the future." This is obvious since any downturn is followed by a period of recovery. It is good that the Fed Chairman clearly understands that the future of the economy now depends not on the actions of the Fed or the White House, but on doctors and the timing of localization of the epidemic. "We are not experts in the field of pandemics. We will listen to the experts. Dr. Anthony Fauci (Director Of the Institute of Allergy and infectious diseases, which is part of the White House working group on fighting the COVID-19 virus) said that the timing will determine the virus, and it seems right to me," Mr. Powell said. "First you need to curb the spread of the virus, and then think about restoring economic activity," said the Director of the Federal Reserve. Powell also believes that economic activity will recover in the second half of the year and begin to show growth. The Fed's goals, according to its head, are to give a certain period for suspending the economy to take control of the virus.

Unfortunately, Donald Trump and Jerome Powell have different opinions about the epidemic and the economy. However, we are already used to the fact that the opinions of the country's President and the head of the Fed rarely coincide. Trump wants to restart the economy by mid-April and thus cancel all quarantine measures in the country. According to Trump, "the cure for the disease should not cost more than the disease itself." Perhaps this phrase will be remembered for a long time by the American President, for whom the economy and world leadership are much more important than the lives and health of their own population. "We are going to open soon... I would like the country to be open and begin to recover by Easter," the US leader said. According to Trump, if the economy does not resume working, the country will suffer from a recession or depression, which is even worse. "You will get thousands of suicides, there will be instability," Trump said. However, fortunately, most of the congressmen do not support Trump. For example, a member of the Republican Party, Liz Cheney, believes that the economy will not function normally if hospitals across the country are overloaded and thousands of Americans of all ages are seriously ill, and some will die. Cheney believes that the American people will not forgive the government for not taking appropriate measures to overcome the epidemic. Many periodicals and media outlets also criticized Trump. For example, one publication suggests that the US President and his family move to New York, which accounts for more than 30% of all illnesses. Donald Trump is also accused of pursuing personal interests. All its hotels and golf clubs are now closed, respectively, do not bring profit. The main thing is that the Democrats do not start another impeachment process...

From a technical point of view, the upward movement continues. We believe that the US currency is in some way now returning excess confidence. Traders believed that the US dollar is the most stable and secure currency, but recent news and reports show that the contraction of the economy can be huge. Stock markets started to recover, but as we have already found out, their collapse was not the reason for the dollar's growth. Thus, we will not be surprised if the euro currency now returns to the Murray level of "6/8"-1.1475, where the fall in quotes began.

Exchange Rates 27.03.2020 analysis

The average volatility of the E=euro/dollar currency pair remains at record high values but still begins to gradually decrease. At the moment, the average value for the last 5 days is 171 points and the last five days have shown volatility below 200 points per day. On Friday, March 27, we expect a further decrease in volatility and movement within the channel, limited to the levels of 1.0858 and 1.1200.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0986

S2 - 1.0864

S3 - 1.0742

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1108

R2 - 1.1230

R3 - 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair continues its upward movement. Thus, traders are now recommended to buy the euro with the targets of 1.1108 and 1.1200 before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to sell the EUR/USD pair no earlier than fixing the price above a moving with the first goal of the Murray level of "0/8"-1.0742. When opening any positions, we recommend increased caution, since the market is still very restless.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The highest linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.

The lowest linear regression channel is the purple unidirectional lines.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Paolo Greco
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