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Long-term review

The US dollar continues to decline against major currencies, and not only against them, but also in the wake of a decrease in panic in global markets associated with the coronavirus pandemic.

It seems that investors, imagining the likely development of events around this topic, could not resist the temptation to take advantage of the monstrous volumes of stimulus measures presented by the world Central Bank led by the Federal Reserve. This wave is showing more and more steady growth and, one might even say, the rise in the value of previously strongly falling stocks of companies, primarily in the United States, where the announced new assistance program of $ 2 trillion and the actual announcement of unlimited purchases of bonds by the Fed opened an unprecedented flow liquidity, and cheap.

Observing everything that is happening, as before, we believe that, on the one hand, "getting used to" the situation around the coronavirus, and on the other hand, the natural desire of investors to buy very cheapened assets, will push up the general increase in demand for risky assets. Moreover, the world Central Banks offer all the conditions for this.

With increasing demand for the purchase of shares in companies, the US dollar will weaken against major currencies. And the reason for this will be not only comprehensive support measures by the Fed and the agreement of the American regulator with other world Central Banks, such as the Central Bank of Japan, Switzerland, the Bank of England, etc., but also the "normal" leveling of the dollar against these currencies against the backdrop of the sales dollar, which was previously acquired in the wake of the panic as a safe haven currency in catastrophic situations, which also affected the pandemic coronavirus.

An additional negativity for the dollar on Thursday was the publication of the expected data on initial applications for unemployment benefits, which soared to around 3,283,000 against the expected increase to 1,650,000 and the previous value of 282,000.

These figures did not lead to a collapse, as they were expected, but gave the dollar an additional impulse to decline. In fact, the data showed that the incentive measures taken by the Fed and the US Treasury will remain global and, most likely, will last quite a long time. In this situation, we expect continued local depreciation of the dollar with likely small correctional returns. And this fall will only intensify as the situation with the viral pestilence in Europe and the United States begins to decline.

Predicting the likely development of events for the next week, we believe that in the absence of an increase in panic sentiment, trends in world markets, including the currency market, will continue.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading with an increase in the wake of rising demand for risky assets and a general weakening of the dollar. However, it can adjust downward following the dynamics of stock markets. In this case, the price will decline to the level of 1.0980 or even lower to 1.0915. We believe that from these levels, it is necessary to buy it with a local target of 1.1185.

The USD/CAD pair is falling in the wake of the same factors that affect the EUR/USD pair. The pair can recover to the level of 1.4150. We consider it possible to sell it from this level or after crossing the level of 1.3985 with the target level of 1.3820.

Exchange Rates 27.03.2020 analysis

Exchange Rates 27.03.2020 analysis

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Pati Gani
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