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27.03.202017:56 EUR/USD. March 27. Results of the day. The United States came out on top for "coronavirus" diseases, China is closing its borders to foreigners and preparing for the second wave

4-hour timeframe

Exchange Rates 27.03.2020 analysis

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 171p (high).

The last trading day ends for the EUR/USD pair with an ideal development of the first resistance level of 1.1075 and a rebound from this level. Thus, today and in the next few trading days, there may be a downward correction with the goal of the Kijun-sen line. As long as the price is above the critical line, the pair's upward prospects remain. Volatility in the euro/dollar remains quite high, with 130 points already passed today. Nobody knows what will happen to the euro next. We still recommend that traders pay more attention to technical factors since they are the ones that best represent the picture of what is happening. There are a huge number of fundamental and macroeconomic factors that can now influence the market. At the same time, it is not clear which factors from this list are completely ignored by traders, and which ones influence their decisions. It is possible that no factors matter to traders at all, except for one – the "coronavirus" epidemic. Thus, trading on the "foundation" is now extremely problematic, and we do not recommend doing this.

Some market participants, as well as ordinary citizens, began to almost open champagne when it became known about the reduction in the number of new diseases in China. The example of a billion-and-a-half dollar China has made it clear that if there is a strict quarantine for a certain time, you can localize the epidemic with relatively small losses. Therefore, many people believed that in Italy, United States, Spain, and everywhere else, everything would go according to the same scenario. That is, not a large proportion of the population will get sick in total, and after a while, the cases of new diseases will stop, and most of the infected patients will recover. However, recent data suggest that new cases of "coronavirus" infection are being recorded in China. Over the past day, 55 new cases were recorded and according to the Health Protection Committee of the PRC, 54 infected citizens arrived from abroad. Thus, on March 28, China officially closes its borders to all foreigners.

Earlier, we reported that the United States during the epidemiological lull in China came out on top in the world in terms of the number of people infected with the COVID-2019 virus. Of course, President Donald Trump couldn't ignore this point and said that a strong rise in infections is due to the fact that in the United States, massive testing of all possible cases of the disease was conducted. According to Trump, who even in this situation managed to boast to the whole world, "as many tests as the States have conducted, no country in the world has conducted." At the same time, Donald Trump introduced a state of emergency in a total of 12 States. New York, North Carolina, New Jersey, Iowa, Louisiana, Florida, Texas, Washington, and California were joined by Maryland, Missouri, and Illinois. The emergency mode allows States to receive additional funds allocated by the government.

As the "coronavirus" pandemic continues to spread calmly across the planet, the two leaders of the world's largest countries, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, held a telephone conversation in which they agreed to work closely in the fight against the pandemic. "I just finished a conversation with President Xi. The virus ravaging most of our Earth was discussed in detail. China has been through many trials and has a deep understanding of the coronavirus. We are working closely together," Trump wrote on Twitter immediately after the conversation.

Meanwhile, in the "European focus" of infection, Italy, again announced an increased number of deaths over the past day. On March 26, the pandemic killed 712 people, and the total number of deaths is already more than 8,000. Recall that the total number of people infected with the virus worldwide is already more than 550,000.

Probably, fortunately, on Friday, March 27, the European Union and the United States were not scheduled for a large number of important macroeconomic publications. In the US trading session, data on changes in personal income and spending of the US population for February were published. The first indicator grew by 0.6%, the second - by 0.2% in monthly terms. The consumer confidence indicator from the University of Michigan will be 89.1 with a forecast of 90.0 and a previous value of 95.9. However, these data could not cause any reaction from traders, as they are insignificant in the current conditions. We still believe that it is extremely important for all markets to calm down. It is clear that when James Bullard predicts 30% unemployment, which is higher than during the great depression, and the economy is falling by 30-50%, it is difficult to remain calm. However, the more markets panic, the worse it will be for the markets themselves.

Today, just a few hours later, the US House of Representatives will consider a proposal to provide financial assistance to the American economy in the amount of $2 trillion. Most likely, this package will be approved.

Recommendations for long positions:

The EUR/USD pair started to adjust. Thus, it is now recommended to buy the euro currency after the MACD indicator turns up or after overcoming the level of 1.1075 with the goal of the volatility level of 1.1200. At the beginning of next week, new support and resistance levels will be determined.

Recommendations for short positions:

Sell orders are recommended to be considered only after the pair is fixed below the Kijun-sen line, which will mean a change in the trend for the pair to a downward one. In this case, the first target for sale positions will be the support level of 1.0476.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Paolo Greco
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