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31.03.202013:38 EUR/USD: future outlooks

Long-term review

Exchange Rates 31.03.2020 analysis

Unlike previous crises, the current is more like a hurricane that covers a certain territory and causes serious damage to its economy. Coronavirus has already hit globally, and the longer the pandemic lasts, the higher the chances that temporary difficulties can turn into long-running problems.

The movement of the main currency pair in the last month can be compared with aerobatics, as the EUR / USD volatility remains very high. Amid falling US stock market, the euro rose against the US dollar from a minimum of $ 1.0784 to a maximum slightly below $ 1.15 in less than two weeks. Then the main currency pair passed the point of the local peak and fell sharply in the following days. In less than half a month, the euro lost all profits, dropping to a two-year low below $ 1.07 due to an increase in the number of coronavirus cases in Europe. However, a week ago the EUR / USD pair pushed off the bottom, eventually returning to the level of 1.11 amid the outbreak in America. On Monday, the pair broke off a six-day growth strip and went into the red zone.

Technically, the inability of EUR / USD to gain a foothold over the 200-day moving average suggests that the recent rebound from multi-year lows has already lost momentum. However, before betting on the resumption of the previous bearish trend, it is worth waiting for a clean breakdown of the 1.0965 mark. In this case, the pair may accelerate in the direction of 1.0900 and further to 1.0840.

The nearest resistance is located at 1.1065, then at 1.1095 and 1.1100. A pure breakdown of these levels can target the bulls to the area of 1.1145–1.11150, and its breakthrough will clear the way for the short-term growth of the pair. From here, the pair can head for 1.1200 and an important resistance at 1.1225.

As for the long-term prospects, the dynamics of EUR / USD will depend on which region the pandemic will decline first, as well as on the degree of damage to the economy.

Exchange Rates 31.03.2020 analysis

The European Commission predicts a decline in the European economy in 2020 at 1%, however, according to informed sources, it is also studying a pessimistic scenario, which provides for a decline of 2.5% of GDP and a strong surge in unemployment. At the same time, the same sources admit that even in the conditions of uncertainty regarding the terms of quarantine cancellation, even this scenario is no longer considered the most pessimistic one.

The EC admits that the slowdown in the region's economy, triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, may be more severe than during the 2009 recession.

"The economic consequences of coronavirus are no longer indirect (the effects of disrupted international supply chains) and now hit directly the economies of the European region, causing the suspension of various types of economic activity," the EC noted.

Although, until the United States completely defeats the pandemic, possibly even before the moon, the US stock market begins to act as if the hurricane were a thing of the past. Investors believe that the recession in the US will be deep, but not for long. But what if this is not so? If events begin to develop along the lines of 2008, then the country's economy may take years to recover. According to former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen, excessive support for the US corporate sector is a mistake: local companies are already loaned and can use cheap money to buy back their own shares or pay dividends. As a result, the risks of defaults will increase, which will increase the time frame for the recovery of the national economy.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Viktor Isakov
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