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Long-term review

Exchange Rates 06.04.2020 analysis

The world economy is currently facing two difficult tasks: to avoid the irreversible collapse of euro to a very low value, and to "slow down" the rise of dollar, which has become the undisputed king of the market, amid the raging pandemic of the coronavirus. Experts believe that the market will be able to cope with these challenges.

Dollar is fueled by the current huge demand from traders and investors who prefer the safe haven currency amidst the situation. It remains to be the only stable thing in this pandemic and economic crisis.

However, there are drawbacks in strengthening the position of dollar. According to analysts, the situation threatens to devalue most of the world's currencies, especially the emerging markets (EM). A stronger dollar not only contributes to the decline of commodity prices, but also increases risks in relation to EM. In order to overcome the difference between their currencies and USD, most countries in the EM sector cut their interest rates, which contributes to the depreciation of EM funds. Economists say that even if the Fed manages to control the profit, if the dollar continues to grow, unprecedented measures will have to be taken. The strengthening of the currency can only be stopped by coordinated actions of a number of States, or a joint intervention of developed countries.

Another factor that could possibly slow down the growth of the dollar is the next data on the US labor market. On Thursday, April 9, the report on the applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will come out again. Recall that over the past two weeks, the number of applications increased by 3.3 million, and then soared to 6.6 million. According to preliminary forecasts, it is expected to increase further by up to 5.1 million in the near future. If this happens, the US labor market will continue to shrink, and cause severe distortions and failures in the economy.

Meanwhile, the current position of euro is even more unstable than the dynamics of dollar. Many experts believe that it will continue to weaken even further, and can only be corrected if many European states adopt a package of emergency measures. If that happens, USD will slightly weaken, and EUR will have a chance to recover.

However, if there's a delay or failure to coordinate actions, currency strategists at Bank of America are sure that the euro will fall sharply. Experts believe that in the second quarter of 2020, the currency will collapse to 1.0200, as the disunity of European leaders, as well as the inability to agree on a joint financial response to the challenge posed by COVID-19, will push euro to the edge of the abyss. The inaction of the EU countries will cause unprecedented damage to the EU economy, from which it is difficult to recover.

Against this background, US may become even more active, which will enable dollar to regain its power over Euro, increasing economic inequality between the two regions even further.

In this situation, experts recommend focusing on short positions on the EUR/USD pair. Sellers should protect the range of 1.0833, because in the event of its breakdown and opening short positions, the pair may move to the lower border of the descending channel. On the morning of Monday, April 6, the EUR/USD pair was trading near 1.0820–1.0822, trying not to fall even lower. Unfortunately, the efforts were in vain, as the pair later slid to 1.0812–1.0813.

According to experts, in the medium term and long term, the market will be able to cope with such contradictory tasks. The main thing is not to let the euro reach the point of no return. Analysts believe that once euro finds the bottom, it will be able to push off and move to growth.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Larisa Kolesnikova
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