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29.05.202013:06 EUR / USD: Euro's continuous growth still uncertain

Long-term review

Exchange Rates 29.05.2020 analysis

A statement by the European Commission on the issuance of bonds worth € 750 billion allowed the EUR / USD bulls to push quotes above the 11th figure, while even the disappointing statistics for the United States did not help their opponents. The decline in US GDP in January - March was stronger (-5% on an annualized basis) than previously expected (-4.8%), while the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the country over the past ten weeks exceeded 40 million.

Talks about unity in the Eurozone still remains, and euro fans continue to savor the EU's plans to save the region's economy. Although the economic rebound from the bottom in May in the eurozone turned out to be modest, this did not prevent the EUR / USD bulls to gain an advantage.

If earlier Germany, the main payer to the EU budget, actively resisted a large-scale fiscal stimulus, then at the end of spring the situation would have changed dramatically. It is possible that the German government felt guilty for the controversial decisions of the country Constitutional Court, which could well split the eurozone.

The Commission's ambitious plan assumes that Italy and Spain will receive the main preferences, for which grants and cheap loans in the amount of € 313 billion are reserved. If earlier the southern countries feared that their debts would grow by leaps and bounds, now they have the opportunity to receive part money for free. The final decision on the proposal is set at the EU summit on June 19 and market participants believe that there will not be any possible hindrances with its approval.

The success of the euro could be more impressive if it were not for the US stock market to stop growing, which was seriously appalled by Donald Trump's promise to give an answer to the adoption of China's national security law in Hong Kong in the near future. This city-state is a kind of gateway to China for investors from the United States. The outflow of Washington, frightened by potential sanctions, threatens a new tsunami for US stock indexes.

According to JP Morgan, it's time to take profits on American stocks. MUFG experts, in turn, note that so far the hopes for a recovery in the US economy are strong enough, however, as investors become more concerned about the deterioration of relations between Washington and Beijing, they will gradually fade away, which will lead to an increase in demand for safe-haven assets.

The single European currency is strengthening against the US dollar for the fourth day in a row, and the next significant level for it is $ 1.1200.

Closing the week and May above the 200-day moving average and a round mark of $ 1.1100 would indicate a breakdown of the downward trend formed at the beginning of 2018. However, the euro is showing very volatile growth, which is based only on technical factors and short-term impulses and does not take into account the weakness of fundamental indicators, as well as the high risks of expanding disputes between the US and China. This is a rather unstable platform which at any moment can get out from under the feet of the EUR / USD bulls. Also, the single European currency will be vulnerable to headlines in the press if the EU member states speak out against the recovery plan proposed by the European Commission. In addition, next week the ECB is likely to increase the volume of the bond redemption program and publish very gloomy forecasts, which will jeopardize the EUR / USD rally.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Viktor Isakov
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