24.11.202018:46 Analytische Bewertungen Forex: EUR / USD decline amid contrast in business activity data in Europe and USA, and ongoing COVID-19 crisis

Long-term review

Exchange Rates 24.11.2020 analysis

The main currency pair is still under the influence of two oppositely directed factors: the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and hopes for an early vaccine against the virus.

At the moment, investors are at a crossroads, trying to figure out whether to focus on the negative effects of the coronavirus or on a return to normal in the future.

On Monday, the greenback tested the lows since September 1, but important support near 92 points held out. Meanwhile, strong US PMI data for November came as a surprise to the market and helped USD to halt its retreat and turn sharply higher.

According to preliminary estimates, the composite purchasing managers' index in the US for the current month rose to a maximum in more than five and a half years, at 57.9 points, compared with 56.3 points in October.

A sharp greenback reversal could mean a decrease in investor confidence that the Fed will decide to take any aggressive action at the December meeting.

Given the outlook for an effective vaccine soon, the rise in the US stock market, and strong US statistics, the regulator will most likely prefer to wait until the renewed congressional staff starts work in January before taking action.

EUR / USD was able to briefly break the 1.1900 mark, but then fell sharply to 1.1810, ending Monday's trading near 1.1840.

The contrasts in the data on business activity in Europe and the USA favored the decline of the euro against the dollar.

The composite PMI of the euro area, according to the first estimate, dipped to 45.1 points this month from 50 points in October. The value of the indicator in November became the lowest in six months.

It should be admitted, however, that European purchasing managers' indices were not as bad as economists feared. The manufacturing sector in Germany and the eurozone as a whole has strengthened. Given the scale of recent restrictive measures in the region, it can be said that the situation could be much direr. However, the indicators may still be revised downward.

On Tuesday, the US dollar slowed down its recovery from 12-week lows, where it was the day before.

The defensive greenback was under pressure from reports that Donald Trump had given the go signal to the head of the General Services Administration (GSA), Emily Murphy, for the handover of power to Joe Biden.

Also, the market reacted very positively to the news about the possible appointment of Janet Yellen for the post of Treasury Secretary under Biden. Since the former Fed chair is associated with financial incentives among investors, this news increased risk appetite and allowed the euro to regain some of its recent losses against the dollar.

"The strong support level for EUR / USD near 1.1790 is still unbreakable, but the weakening of the bullish momentum indicates that the pair is not ready to break above 1.1920. Now it can trade sideways for some time, and only an exit from the 1.1790-1920 range will signal the beginning of a more directional movement, "UOB experts believe.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Viktor Isakov
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