There were several statistical data for a number of countries yesterday, which definitely influenced the exchange rate.
Looking at yesterday's economic calendar, it can be seen that the first event was the publication of inflation data in the UK, where there was a forecasted growth to 0.8%. However, the actual result was a noticeable decline from 0.7% to 0.4%.
The pound sterling reacted immediately to this, showing local surge from short positions (sell positions).
Following the inflation data, the producer's selling price index for February was published, which increased by 0.6%. However, this was already ignored.
PMI data in Europe, UK and the US, which periodically led to an increase or decrease in major currencies, was also released. This resulted in a conditional price range where the quotes followed.
PMI data [All time stamps are in Universal Time]:
- EU 9:00 - Manufacturing PMI (Mar): Prev. 57.9 ----> Fact. 62.4
- EU 9:00 - Services PMI (Mar): Prev. 45.7 ----> Fact. 48.8
During the publication period, the value of the euro locally increased.
- UK 9:30 - Manufacturing PMI (Mar): Prev. 55.1 ----> Fact. 57.9
- UK 9:30 - Services PMI (Mar): Prev. 49.5 ----> Fact. 56.8
During the publication period, the value of the pound locally strengthened.
- USA 13:45 - Manufacturing PMI (Mar): Prev. 58.6 ----> Forecast 59.0
- USA 13:45 - Service PMI (Mar): Prev. 59.8 ----> Forecast 60.0
During the time of publication, the US dollar did not make any reaction to the statistics in relation to the euro-pound ratio. But if we change to the dollar index, things seem to be different. Here, the DXY index (dollar index) not only showed upward interest, but also updated the local high of 92.50, which is considered a strong signal for the upward trend. If the index is kept above 92.50, we cannot exclude a movement towards the range of 94.00-94.50 in the medium term.
As for traditional currency pairs, we have significant price changes, which are measured not just by the scale, but by the breakdown of important coordinates in the market.
If we carefully analyze the trading chart of the EUR/USD pair, a breakout of the local low of March 9 (1.1835) should be highlighted, which led to the prolongation of the correction from the high of the mid-term trend 1.2349 ---> // 1.1835 // ---> 1.1804. Technically, such a movement is very important, which means that our trading recommendations for short positions (sell positions) for the Euro currency is considered successful.
Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair continues to follow the downward trend, from which the local low of the correction has been repeatedly updated. The quote is also sharply holding below the 1.3700 mark.
The trading recommendation regarding the sell position has already brought more than 100 points of net profit since the beginning of the week, which is $ 100 with a transaction volume of 1 instalot.
Trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 25
Today, the United States will release its weekly data on unemployment claims, which is expected to further decline. If so, this may positively affect the labor market recovery and the possible growth of the national currency.
- Volume of initial applications for benefits is expected to fall from 770 thousand to 730 thousand.
- Volume of repeated applications for benefits is expected to fall from 4,124 thousand to 4,043 thousand.
USA 12:30 Universal time - Applications for benefits
Judging by the EUR/USD pair trading chart, it can be seen that the quote is moving below the correctional movement, which might lead to a decline towards the range of 1.1700-1.1650. It can be recalled that short positions can be locally overheated, which does not exclude a slowdown, or a slight pullback. In this case, traders will consider the next decline after the price has been kept below the level of 1.1800 in the H4 time frame.
As for the trading chart of GBP/USD pair, it shows that market participants are following a small amplitude in the range of 1.3675/1.3710. Most likely, speculators will break through this stagnation in the near future, where, if we consider the main market mood, the chance of breaking the lower limit is quite high. In any case, we do not rush to make an action, so we will wait for the price to hold below the level of 1.3670 in the H4 period to get the strongest sell signal.
