Oil spent some time holding steady around a local high but then lost ground, entering a technical pullback. This comes as no surprise. After all, oil has added more than 10% in about a month.
Yesterday’s pick-up in the dollar across the board also contributed to lower oil prices. Nevertheless, the market has increasingly high expectations that next week's rate hike by the Fed will be the last one in the current cycle. Investors believe that the US regulator will start preparing for a gradual easing of monetary policy. This paves the way for further gains in all financial instruments, including oil. Thus, crude prices may not only return to local highs but even edge up to $90 per barrel by the end of the week.
In the meantime, Brent crude oil futures are in a correction from the level of $89 per barrel. The asset has already lost about 3%. The downward corrective move remains intact, so a subsequent decline towards $85 cannot be ruled out. Alternatively, if the quote slows down the pace of its movement around current levels and then returns above 88, the volume of long positions will increase. In this case, the benchmark may well rise to at least $90 per barrel.
As for gold, the situation is similar. However, market volatility has sharply eased in recent days. Apparently, the asset’s upside potential has been almost exhausted. This is not surprising. After all, the yellow metal began to post gains back in November last year, adding almost 20% since then. Expectations of the Fed’s dramatic easing in monetary policy do not allow gold prices to enter a correction. Thus, in a best-case scenario, the metal may advance to $2,000 per ounce, but then it is likely to slide into correction territory.
If the price consolidates above the 1,940 mark on the four-hour chart, a subsequent increase in the volume of long positions will drive the asset up to the psychological level of 2,000.
Meanwhile, the dollar/ruble pair continues to trade around the upper boundary of the range limited by the levels of 68 and 69 rubles. Such stability suggests that the trading range will probably shift to the area of 67 to 68 rubles per dollar only next week, after the Fed meeting. At the same time, there is a likelihood that the peak of the tax period in Russia, which has started today, may support the national currency.

00:00 Introduction
00:19 Oil Market Situation
00:56 Brent
01:29 Gold
02:18 USD/RUB
02:46 Conclusion

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