18.11.2021: Oil comes under pressure - Outlook for Brent, USD/RUB, GOLD
Hi, everyone! Let’s start our review by saying that Washington has asked some of the largest oil consuming nations in Southeast Asia to consider releasing crude oil from their own strategic petroleum reserves. The market regarded the US request as a demand and reacted by lowering oil prices. Watch the video to find out what to expect from the oil market next in the face of conflicting data on US crude oil inventories.
Yesterday’s data on US crude oil inventories turned out to be mixed. The indicator fell again. However, the news has not yet affected the rise in prices due to the political situation and US President Joe Biden"s statements.
Against this background, Brent crude oil dropped to $80 per barrel for the first time in more than a month. This fall can be attributed to expectations of China joining the United States in releasing crude oil reserves as well as forecasts suggesting an oversupply in the commodity market as early as December. At a virtual meeting on November 17, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed the merits of releasing oil from their strategic petroleum reserves to ensure stability in global energy markets. This is one of the reasons oil prices are currently losing value. However, the oil market deficit will hardly allow the benchmark to slide to $79 or lower. Therefore, Brent crude will most likely trade in a range between the levels of $79.5 and $81 per barrel.
Speaking of the situation in the foreign exchange market, the Russian currency has recovered slightly. The ruble managed to complete a local rebound and consolidate near 72.85 rubles per dollar after Russia reported better-than-expected data on GDP. Today’s macroeconomic calendar is bereft of any important releases except for the US jobs report. However, analysts expect jobless claims to remain unchanged. This means that the currency pair may spend the day standing still.
Experts still believe that the greenback has every chance of extending gains against the ruble. Therefore, stagnation may occur at the level of 73 rubles per dollar, which the quotes are currently heading for.
Meanwhile, the previous day was successful for gold. The foreign policy of the United States caused uncertainty in the market and the precious metal began to strengthen. Investors shifted their focus to the safe-haven asset and gold prices rushed to new highs. Moreover, gold is likely to extend gains today. Analysts do not exclude that growing demand could drive gold prices up to the level of $1,900 per troy ounce. However, no one can yet predict when it will happen.
Well, here’s our forecast for today. The market will show how accurate it is, and we will recap the trading day tomorrow. May your trading be lucrative! Subscribe to our channel and leave comments!