The wave marking of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument still does not require adjustments, but it is undoubtedly becoming more complicated. We saw the completion of the construction of the next five-wave impulse descending wave structure, then one upward correction wave, after which the low waves of 5 were updated. These movements allow me to conclude that the pattern of five months ago was repeated when the 5-wave structure down was completed in the same way, one wave up, and we saw five more waves down. There is no question of any classical wave structure (5 trend waves, 3 correction waves) right now. The news background is such that the market even builds single corrective waves with great reluctance. Thus, in such circumstances, I cannot predict the end of the downward trend segment. We can still observe for a very long time the picture of "a strong wave down - a weak corrective wave up." The goals of the downward trend segment, which has been complicated and lengthened many times, can be found up to 90 figures or even lower.
In Italy, the ultra-right won
The euro/dollar instrument rose by 35 basis points on Tuesday. Compared to the decline we have all seen in recent weeks, this is very little to talk about building a corrective wave. If on Monday we saw an even more or less decent rebound, then on Tuesday, the market activity fell, and there were no more buyers on it. Thus, the construction of the next downward wave may continue this week. The news background continues to depress both directly and indirectly. I have already covered the situation with the conflict in Ukraine and the mobilization in Russia, but there is other news that does not bode well for the European Union.
This week, it became known that the ultra-right came to power in Italy. In particular, one of the leaders, Silvio Berlusconi, has made several resonant statements that run counter to the pan-European "anti-Russian" rhetoric. Several analysts suggest that Italy will move away from the EU, and will also contribute to slowing down the confrontation with Russia. For good or bad, it is not for me to judge, but the clear vector of EU policy may be violated. However, Brussels has already stated that Italy will not be able to influence the democratic values of the European Union. And in the case of a different "party policy," sanctions may be applied against Italy. From my point of view, so far, this conflict has been inflated to the size of an elephant, although it is no bigger than a fly. So far, it is completely unclear what policies the new parties that have come to power will adhere to. In doing so, Britain has perfectly shown to the world that if you are not satisfied with something (in particular, migration policy issues or budget allocation), then the exit from any alliance is the same as the entrance. The pound sterling is now talking about how correct this decision was, which will soon fall not only to the value of the dollar, but also to the value of the euro currency.
General conclusions
Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of a downward trend section continues but can end at any time. At this time, the instrument continues to decline, so I advise careful sales with targets near the estimated mark of 0.9397, equating to 423.6% Fibonacci. I urge caution, as it is unclear how much longer the decline in the euro currency will continue.
At the higher wave scale, the wave marking of the descending trend segment becomes noticeably more complicated and lengthens. It can take on almost any length, so I think it's best to isolate the three- and five-wave standard structures from the overall picture and work on them. One of these five waves can be just completed now, and the new one has begun its construction.
