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We at FxWirePro, think they should not. Even if they still do, it may not yield the result they are looking for.

Reasons being simple –

  • According to G20 agreement, currency intervention to exploit trade benefits through competitive devaluations are not to be practiced. If Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervenes in the names of abrupt movements, it will do only to complicate the passage of Trans-Pacific trade deal in Western hemisphere.
  • Bank of Japan, isn’t the only central bank that saw currency strengthen despite easing. Euro is higher, despite European Central Bank’s (ECB) large stimulus package which includes both negative rates, asset purchases, LTROs and inclusion of corporate bonds.
  • If history is of any guide, then BOJ should refresh its memories to 2011, when Yen strengthened to record high of around 75 per Dollar. Direct intervention by BOJ as well as coordination with G7 central banks failed to weaken Yen. So if the first intervention isn’t large enough to reverse direction for good, the whole intervention could backfire by strengthening Yen more.

Yen is currently trading at 108.7 per Dollar and it’s better for now to let it be and not make too much fuss about it.

However, BOJ could intervene to reduce volatility on both side, after clearly communicating it, similar to Reserve Bank of India, and that could be a much better strategy.