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Market Roundup

  • Japan ChiefCab Sec Suga – Will work to minimize Brexit impact on Japanese firms – Reuters.
  • Japan seen missing debt-reduction target for fiscal ’18 - Nikkei.
  • AFLAC sells Y60 bln 10-year notes via Merrill, Mizuho, MS, SMBC Nikko.
  • Toyota forecast – US car market seen topping 17 mln in ’17 – Nikkei.
  • US companies are paring investment plans in China – ACC China survey, WSJ.
  • China Pres Xi – World needs China, US to have stable relationship – Reuters.
  • PBOC fixes CNY at 6.8525 vs USD, strongest in more than two months.
  • China Dec new home prices +0.3% m/m, +12.4% y/y, Beijing unch, +25.9%, Shanghai -0.2%, +26.5%, Shenzen -0.4%, +23.5%.
  • SF Fed Williams (non-voter, hawk) – Further gradual rate hikes appropriate, at full employment goal, GDP +1.5-1.75% this year and next, inflation to reach 2% next couple of years, wages picking up, goal to support trend GDP growth, fiscal stimulus could see higher US growth, outlook roughly balanced, downside risks from international – China, Europe, economic data before December enough for him to support rate hike, case for three this year.
  • Australian Jan Westpac/MI consumer sentiment index -0.1% to 97.4, Dec -3.4%.
  • Foreign holdings of NZ debt eases in December, 60.3% vs Nov 60.6%.
  • New Zealand Fonterra GDT price index +0.6%, recovery on-going, prev auction -3.9%.

Economic Data Ahead

  • (0200 ET/0700 GMT) Germany Dec CPI  - final, +0.7% m/m, +1.7% y/y forecast; flash +0.7%, +1.7%.
  • (0200 ET/0700 GMT) Germany Dec HICP – final, +1.0% m/m, +1.7% y/y forecast; flash +1.0%, +1.7%.
  • (0430 ET/0930 GMT) Great Britain Dec claimant count, 5.0k forecast; last 2.4k.
  • (0430 ET/0930 GMT) Great Britain Nov ILO unemployment, 4.8% forecast; last 4.8%.
  • (0430 ET/0930 GMT) Great Britain Nov average weekly earnings – 3-mo avge, +2.6% y/y forecast; last +2.5%.
  • (0430 ET/0930 GMT) Great Britain Nov - ex-bonus, +2.6% y/y forecast; last +2.6%.
  • (0500 ET/1000 GMT) Eurozone Dec inflation – final, +0.5% m/m, +1.1% y/y forecast; flash -0.1%, +1.1%.
  • (0500 ET/1000 GMT) Eurozone Dec – ex-food/energy,  +0.4% m/m, +0.9% y/y forecast; last  -0.1%, +0.8%.
  • (0830 ET/1330 GMT) United States Dec CPI,    +0.3% m/m, +2.1% y/y forecast; last +0.2%, +1.7%, idx 241.35.
  • (0830 ET/1330 GMT) United States Dec – core, +0.2% m/m, +2.2% y/y forecast; last +0.2%, +2.1%, idx 249.36.
  • (0830 ET/1330 GMT) United States Dec real weekly earnings; last -0.3% m/m.
  • (0830 ET/1330 GMT) United States Dec Cleveland Fed CPI; last +0.2% m/m.
  • (0915 ET/1415 GMT) United States Dec industrial production, +0.6% m/m forecast; last -0.4%.
  • (0915 ET/1415 GMT) United States Dec capacity utilization, 75.4% forecast; last 75.0%.
  • (1000 ET/1500 GMT) United States Jan NAHB housing market index, 69.0 forecast; last 70.0.

Key Events Ahead

  • N/A   Davos World Economic Forum (till January 20), Sweden PM/FinMin presser.
  • N/A   Italy ’33 bond syndication via IMI, Barclays, CA, ING and NatWest.
  • (0500 ET/1000 GMT) EC Pres Juncker, Malta PM Muscat Strasbourg meet on Malta EU presidency.
  • (0530 ET/1030 GMT) ECB Nouy speaks at Koblenz, Germany conference.
  • (0530 ET/1030 GMT) UK DMO GBP2.75 bln 0.5% 2022 Gilt auction.
  • (0530 ET/1030 GMT) Portugal E1.25-1.5 bln 6 and 12-month treasury bill auctions.
  • (0850 ET/1350 GMT) Norges Bank Gov Olsen addresses Oslo Bors.
  • (0900 ET/1400 GMT) EU Council Pres Tusk addresses EU parliament in Strasbourg.
  • (0900 ET/1400 GMT) Dallas Fed Kaplan (voter, centrist) in U.Texas Austin panel discussion.
  • (1000 ET/1500 GMT) BoC policy announcement, MPS, no change in 0.5% overnight rate forecast.
  • (1100 ET/1600 GMT) Minny Fed Kashkari (voter, dove) in Minneapolis panel discussion.
  • (1115 ET/1615 GMT) BoC Gov Poloz, DepGov Wilkins press conference.
  • (1400 ET/1900 GMT) Fed Beige Book.
  • (1500 ET/2000 GMT) FOMC Chair Yellen (dove) speaks at San Francisco Commonwealth Club.
  • (1600 ET/2100 GMT) United States Treasury Nov int’l capital flows (TIC), last net $18.8 bln inflow.

FX Beat

DXY: The dollar traded near multi-week lows versus its major peers, weighed down by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's comments citing concern over the currency's strength.  The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.3 percent up at 100.59, having hit a low of 100.26 the day before, it’s lowest since Dec. 8. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at -96.56 (Slightly Bearish) by 0500 GMT.

EUR/USD: The euro edged down after rising to a 6-week high above the 1.0700 handle in the previous session on the back of broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. Moreover, a rise in the U.S. Treasury yields and Federal Reserve monetary policy outlook for 2017 supported the greenback. The European currency trades 0.1 percent lower at 1.0697, having touched a high of 1.0719 on Tuesday, it’s highest since Dec 8. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at 8.76 (Neutral) by 0400 GMT. Investors’ attention now turn towards Eurozone's consumer price index and construction output figures, ahead of the U.S. consumer price index release and Yellen speech for further clues on the major. Immediate resistance is located at 1.0650, a break above targets 1.0700. On the downside, support is seen at 1.0581 (10-DMA), a break below could drag it lower 1.0550.

USD/JPY: The dollar rose, halting its 7-day losing streak, as a rebound in the U.S Treasury yields combined with expectations of upbeat consumer price index figures boosted the greenback. The major slumped to a 7-week low below the 113.00 handle on Tuesday, as concerns over U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's trade policies and hard Brexit fears underpinned the safe-haven Japanese yen's appeal. The pair trades 0.4 percent higher at 113.06, after declining as low as 112.60 in the previous session, it’s lowest since Nov. 30. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at 20.07 (Neutral) by 0400 GMT. Investors now eye the U.S. consumer price index, which is seen improving to 2.1 percent annually from a previous reading of 1.7 percent, while core figure is likely to edge up 2.2 percent from prior 2.1 percent. Additionally, Yellen speech due later today could provide further clues on the U.S. monetary policy outlook. Immediate resistance is located at 113.50, a break above targets 114.14 (7-EMA). On the downside, support is seen at 112.57 (Session Low), a break below could take it till 112.00.

GBP/USD: Sterling tumbled after rising about 3 percent on Tuesday, its biggest 1-day gain since at least 1998 after British Prime Minister Theresa May outlined her 'Brexit' plans. The major eased on a corrective slide, having rallied to a 2-week high above the 1.2400 handle the prior day. Sterling trades 0.6 percent lower at 1.2339, after rising as high as 1.2416 in the previous session, it’s highest since Jan. 6. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at 124.31 (Highly Bullish) by 0400 GMT. Investors’ attention now shifts towards the UK labor market data, ahead of U.S. inflation figures and Fed Yellen's speech. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2450, a break above could take it near 1.2500. On the downside, support is seen at 1.2329 (Session Low), a break below targets 1.2300. Against the euro, the pound trades 0.4 percent down at 86.66 pence, having touched a high of 86.27 the day before, it’s strongest since Jan. 9.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased after rallying to a 2-month high in the previous session following U.S. president-elect Donald Trump comments citing caution on a stronger U.S. dollar. Moreover, a rebound in the U.S. Treasury yields and in the greenback versus its major peers weakened the bid tone around Aussie.  The major trades 0.2 percent lower at 0.7551, after hitting a high of 0.7568 on Tuesday, it’s strongest since Nov. 16. FxWirePro's Hourly Aussie Strength Index stood at 26.96 (Neutral) by 0400 GMT. Investors will continue to track board based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. CPI report and Fed Yellen’s speech. Immediate support is seen at 0.7443 (7-EMA), a break below could drag it till 0.7403 (10-DMA). On the upside, resistance is located at 0.7524, a break above targets 0.7600.

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar nudged down after rising to a 1-month high above the 0.7200 handle in the previous session on the back of broad-based U.S. dollar sell-off and an upbeat GDT price auction. The average prices rose 0.6 percent at the Global Dairy Trade auction, following a 3.9 percent decline in the prior auction, strengthening the bid tone around the Kiwi. The major trades 0.1 percent down at 0.7201, having hit a peak of 0.7219 on Tuesday, it’s strongest since Dec. 14. FxWirePro's Hourly Kiwi Strength Index was at 100.17 (Highly Bullish) by 0500 GMT. Investors will continue to track overall market sentiment, ahead of series of U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech. Immediate resistance is located at 0.7240, a break above could take it till 0.7300. On the downside, support is seen at 0.7147 (5-DMA), a break below could drag it till 0.7100.

Equities Recap

Asian shares rose, drifting closer a 3-month high, while the greenback traded near multi-week lows after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump cited concerns over a stronger dollar.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.3 percent, hovering towards a 3-month high hit last Thursday.

Tokyo's Nikkei gained 0.05 percent to 18,823.81 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index declined 0.45 percent to 5,673.90 points and South Korea's KOSPI was trading 0.02 percent down at 2,071.49 points.

Shanghai composite index rose 0.38 percent to 3,121.29 points, while CSI300 index was trading 0.6 percent higher at 3,347.46 points.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was trading 1.2 percent higher at 22,127.79 points. Taiwan shares shed 0.2 percent at 9,333.62 points.

Commodities Recap

Crude oil prices advanced on the back of a weaker dollar, however, expectations that U.S. producers would boost output limited gains. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.4 percent higher at $55.68 per barrel by 0355 GMT, having hit a high of $56.92 in the previous session, its highest since Jan. 9. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.4 percent at $52.68 a barrel, hovering away from a low of $50.75 hit on Jan. 11.

Gold prices eased but traded near 8-week highs hit in the previous session on uncertainty over U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's fiscal policies. Spot gold edged down 0.1 percent to $1,214.98 per ounce by 0402 GMT, having hit a high of $1,218.72 on Tuesday, it’s strongest since Nov. 22. U.S. gold futures were up 0.3 percent at $1,216.10 per ounce.

Treasuries Recap

The 10-year U.S treasury yield stood at 2.3509 percent higher by 0.024 bps, while 5-year yield was up by 0.023 bps at 1.8489 percent.

The Australian government bonds gained as investors remain keen to focus on the country’s employment report scheduled to be released on January 19. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 2-1/2 basis points to 2.68 percent, the yield on 15-year note plunged 3-1/2 basis points to 3.11 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year moved down 1 basis point to 1.85 percent.

The New Zealand government bonds modestly rose as investors await the release of the fourth-quarter consumer price inflation data, scheduled to be released on Thursday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond fell 1 basis point to 3.12 percent, the yield on 7-year note also edged lower 1 basis point to 2.81 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year note moved down 1 basis point to 2.22 percent.

Canadian government bond prices were higher across the yield curve in sympathy with U.S. Treasuries. The 2-year rose 3.5 Canadian cents to yield 0.775 percent, and the 10 -year climbed 25 Canadian cents to yield 1.666 percent.