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19.07.2018 08:35 AM
Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for July 19, 2018

After an impulsive bullish momentum consistently pushing the price higher leading towards 83.50 area, AUDJPY has been quite corrective and volatile at the edge of the resistance area between 83.50 to 84.50. Though JPY has been struggling with the recent economic reports, but having positive economic reports AUD failed to sustain its momentum in the process.

Today AUD Employment Change report was published with a significant increase to 50.9k from the previous figure of 13.4k which was expected to be at 16.7k and Unemployment Rate was unchanged as expected at 5.4%. Additionally, NAB Quarterly Business Confidence report was published with a slight decrease to 7 from the previous figure of 8.

On the other hand, today the JPY Trade Balance report was published with an increase to 0.07T from the previous figure of -0.30T which failed to meet the expectation of 0.15T in the process. Ahead of the National Core CPI report tomorrow which is expected to increase to 0.8% from the previous value of 0.7% and All Industry Activity to decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 1.0%. The upcoming momentum for JPY is still quite indecisive.

As of the current scenario, JPY did show certain progress in Trade Balance though it did not meet the expected figure but it did help to gain certain momentum over AUD whereas positive economic reports could not provide much sustainability for the currency. To sum up, JPY is expected to gain certain momentum in the coming days if it gets support from the upcoming economic reports yet to be published.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing inside the resistance area of 83.50-84.50 area with certain bullish rejection in today's daily candle which is expected to push the price lower towards 81.50-82.00 area in the coming days. Though the volatility still exists in the pair and Kumo Cloud may hold the bearish momentum and can slow it down in the process. As the price remains below 84.50 area with a daily close, the bearish pressure is expected to continue further.

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