Overview :

The EUR/USD pair has rallied slightly during the week but we still see a significant amount of resistance just below, as the 1.1920 level continues to loom large. The levels of 1.1920 and 1.1984 are representing the double top and the first weekly resistance respectively.

The trend has set in consolidation below the area of 1.1984 - 1.1920 last week. Ultimately, this is a market that still sees a lot of resistance near 1.1920 level that extends to the 1.1984 level.

This week, The EUR/USD pair is once again testing the resistance at 1.1920 while the U.S. dollar is moving lower against a broad basket of currencies.

Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.1920 will reaffirm the case that consolidation from 1.1920 has completed at 1.1984. Further rise would be seen to retest 1.1984 high. However, break of 1.1793 support will turn bias to the downside to extend the consolidation with another falling leg.

Also, it shuld be noted that the Europe director of the World Health Organization (WHO) said last week there a small sign that the latest resurgence of Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the region is slowing but still warned of "six tough months" ahead.

More technically :

On the H4 chart, the EUR/USD pair faced resistance at the level of 1.1984, while minor resistance is seen at 1.1920. Support is found at the levels of 1.1773 (pivot) and 1.1667.

Aweekly daily pivot point has already set at the level of 1.1773. Equally important, the EUR/USD pair is still moving around the key level at 1.1793, which represents a daily pivot in the H4 time frame at the moment.

Last week, the EUR/USD pair continued to move upwards from the level of 1.1603. The pair rose from the level of 1.1603 (this level of 1.1603 coincides with the double bottom) to the top around 1.1920 - closed at 1.1857.

Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.1920 and 1.1773. In overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 1.1920.

The moving average (100) and (50) starts signaling a downward trend; consequently, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.1920. So it will be good to sell at 1.1920 today.

If the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.1920, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.1920. So, the market will decline further to 1.1773 in order to return to the weekly pivot point (0.6604).

Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.1603. The level of 1.1603 will form a double bottom.

Furthermore, the price will fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.1467 to test it again.

On the other hand, if the price closes above the strong resistance of 1.1920, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 1.2110.

Comprehensive, we still prefer the bearish scenario which suggests that the pair will stay below the zone of 1.1920/1.1984 this week.

Weekly key levels

• Major resistance : 1.2110
• Minor resistance : 1.1984
• Pivot point : 1.1793
• Minor support : 1.1667
• Major support : 1.1476