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Even before yesterday, general moods for the pound were not the best, as the forecasts for the labor market were more negative. But the reality turned out to be much worse. Yes, the unemployment rate remained unchanged, and wage growth rates without premiums were accelerated from 2.8% to 2.9%. Also, the growth rate of wages, taking into account premiums, slowed from 2.8% to 2.6%. So these forecasts completely coincided with the forecasts. But the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased from 15.7 thousand to 31.2 thousand, and not decreased to 7.8 thousand. Thus, the data rather indicate a gradual deterioration in the labor market, which was the reason for the further reduction of the pound. But the US statistics has already finally affected the mood of market participants. Of course, the growth rate of retail sales slowed from 4.9% to 4.7%. However, the previous results were revised from 4.5% but expected a slowdown to 4.1%. In other words, despite the decline in retail sales, it will more likely grow given the revision of the data. Equally important is the fact that commercial inventories remained unchanged, although they feared their further growth.

In the UK, there will be no data today, so, On the one hand, it is expected that both the number of issued building permits and the construction projects will decrease by 2.3% and 1.1%, respectively. But the negative will be smoothed by data on industrial production as the growth rate of which should accelerate from 4.3% to 4.5%.

It is most likely for the GBP/USD pair to hang around the area of 1.3500 as the market focuses on U.S. statistics.

Exchange Rates 16.05.2018 analysis

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Performed by Mark Bom,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2018
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