EUR / USD

On Wednesday, the euro continued to consolidate throughout the day until late in the evening, until the publication of a message about the intention of the US Senate to pass a law on bipartisan approval of the duties introduction on cars, which binds Trump hands in the trade war. Also, sales data of new homes in the US turned out to be worse than the forecast, as the June figure came at 631 thousand against expectations of 669 thousand and 666 thousand in May (revised from 689 thousand). As a result, the euro grew by 44 points.

Technically, the situation developed further. On a daily scale, the price was fixed above the red balance line, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator in the positive zone. But today, the ECB promulgates a plan on monetary policy and will make a press conference with Mario Draghi. It is expected that the ECB, in a difficult situation with the US, will wait until important decisions are made. The investors were disappointed and the price can easily overcome technical growth signals and decrease to the first support of the trend line (1.1616), after which the technical scenario of decline to 1.1508 will occur.

In the case of positive signals from the ECB, the euro will initially need to overcome the consolidation zone of the first half of June 1.1750 / 90 and further growth in the range of 1.1840 / 60 is possible.

The main scenario is the option to decline in the euro on the neutrality of the European Central Bank. In this case, investors can fully play a positive role from new orders for US durable goods in June and expected to grow by 3.0%. The volume of basic orders (Core Durable Goods) is expected to increase by 0.5%.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.