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Exchange Rates 12.12.2018 analysis

The market has once again demonstrated its attitude to the attacks of Donald Trump on the Fed, which is expected to raise rates next week. The dollar was ignored by the comments of the US president, who called the "stupidity" a desire to tighten monetary policy at the last meeting this year.

Investors drew attention to the strong statistics on prices of American producers, which led to an increase in greenback. Jerome Powell knowingly said that the further actions of the department he headed will depend on the incoming data. Therefore, the acceleration of the basic producer price index to 0.3% on a monthly basis and up to 2.7% year-on-year is a strong argument in favor of continuing the normalization cycle next year. A positive report increased the likelihood of a single rate increase over the year from 49% to 57%, and also raised the yield of US government bonds and lowered the EUR / USD rate.

Exchange Rates 12.12.2018 analysis

Meanwhile, the euro is seriously set to support the ECB from maintaining faith in the bright future of the eurozone. If the regulator decides to extend QE or financial officials start talking about the LTRO, then a catastrophe for the euro bulls cannot be avoided.

A noticeable blow to their positions may be dealt with by a weak report on PMI for December or an acceleration of the basic inflation of the USA in November to 2.3% and more. It seems that the time is returning when the most important decisions will depend on the published statistics.

The picture becomes clearer and it becomes clear why investors are neutral about the start of trade negotiations between the United States and China, and besides, they are little interested in the renewed unrest in Catalonia. The authorities are unable to cope with the protesters and ask for help from Madrid. Eurosceptics are not inactive, which is why euro fans are extremely excited. In anticipation of important events, EUR / USD tends to consolidate in the range of 1.1265-1.1445.

It should be noted that the rates for the growth of the dollar exchange rate have been increasing for the third week in a row; their volume has already reached its maximum level in three years. Traders bought the US dollar against the Canadian, euro and yen. The most traded currencies, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, are the yen, the euro, the Australian dollar, the pound and the franc. Bearish traders are tuned for loonie and kiwi.

Performed by A Zotova,
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