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Exchange Rates 10.01.2019 analysis

The US currency in the new year will lose all previously collected positions. If last year the dollar index gained about 4%, now, due to the expected deterioration in the country's economic growth and the display of patience by Fed officials in the process of tightening policies, the indicator will be forced to show a downward trend.

According to Reuters respondents, the dominance of the dollar has been left behind. The overwhelming majority of those who still believe in the further growth of the US currency (85% of the respondents) believe that it will exhaust itself in the next six months. Only 3 out of 75 analysts expect an uptrend of the dollar for a year or more.

Recall, a year ago, a Reuters poll showed similar results, experts almost unitedly predicted a decline in the dollar. Despite erroneous estimates, analysts continue to insist on their opinion this year.

Fed Protocol

The protocol showed the willingness of financiers to completely abandon the wording on the further gradual rate increase. Stock indices increased, while the yield of US government bonds and the dollar fell. Meanwhile, in December there was a completely different reaction: shares, after a 13% drop from the end of September, lost another 1.5%. Perhaps this is due to the inattention of the market or the incorrect construction of the text of Jerome Powell's speech. Thus, the head of the Central Bank announced too early that low inflation allows the regulator to be "patient." In January, instead of this, another word appeared, "flexibility", which helped the stock indices soar. Apparently, investors need to repeat the same thing several times so that they choose the direction of movement.

The monetary inaction of the Fed is a strong argument for the gradual closing of long positions on the dollar. In the meantime, the euro has noticeably quickened, the EUR / USD pair finally went to conquer the previously set goals.

Exchange Rates 10.01.2019 analysis

The pigeon comments of the hawks by Charles Evans and Eric Rosengren and the reduction of unemployment in the region to 8% also helped the Euro-currency. This, together with the acceleration of wage growth, increases the chances of an increase in ECB rates in September and contributes to the strengthening of the euro.

Asian currencies

For the first time since the beginning of 2018, investors looked at Asian currencies with optimism. They called Asian assets promising. According to Reuters, the rate on the reduction of the yuan fell to its lowest level since last February. Improving the mood is due to expectations of a speedy normalization of relations in the field of trade between Washington and Beijing. Recall that on Wednesday there was some progress regarding China's purchases of American agricultural products and energy.

It sounds rather strange, but for the first time since February, market participants are betting on the growth of the Indian rupee, which last year was among the main outsiders of the foreign exchange market. Bearish rupee rates have fallen to a minimum since the beginning of 2018.

Performed by A Zotova,
Analytical expert
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