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4-hour timeframe

Exchange Rates 11.01.2019 analysis

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 102p - 73p - 87p - 63p - 121p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 89p (99p).

The EUR/USD currency pair on Thursday, January 10, began to adjust during the European trading session. The effect of the Fed minutes from the last meeting has ended, the euro strengthened quite significantly against the US dollar, and now the turn of technical correction has arrived. There were no news and macroeconomic reports that could support the European currency on the penultimate trading day of the week. There were no major publications in the United States. However, Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, will speak at the Washington Economic Club. Most likely, he will touch upon the topic of monetary policy, perhaps the slowdown of the US economy, changes in the Fed's plans to raise the key rate in 2019 and its conflict with Donald Trump about rates. The more "dovish" rhetoric sounds tonight, the more chances that the euro will resume growth today or tomorrow. However, we believe that everything that could be said on this topic has already been said. It is unlikely that Powell will share any fundamentally new information with the markets. And so it is clear to all that, in the light of low inflationary pressure, unresolved trade conflict with China and a possible recession, raising rates at the same pace as before, it is impractical and even dangerous. Trump at the end of 2018 was just enraged by another rate hike, and 2019 is scheduled for two more increases. And the main question now is whether these two increases will take place. Or will the Fed cost one?

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has started to adjust, so it is recommended to open new longs after the MACD indicator turns up, indicating that the correction is complete. The goal is a resistance level of 1.1588.

Sell orders can be considered no earlier than fixing the price below the Kijun-sen line. In this case, the sell-positions can be opened in small lots with the first goal line Senkou Span B.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.


Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Performed by Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019
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