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Exchange Rates 14.01.2019 analysis

The Australian dollar and kiwi significantly decreased against the dollar, as investor sentiment was spoiled by trade data in the PRC, which raised fears that China might face a sharp slowdown in the economy.

Market sentiment became negative after data showed that China's December exports unexpectedly fell by 4.4 percent year-on-year, which was the largest monthly decline in two years and indicates a further weakening of the world's second-largest economy. The data had a negative impact on the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which lost more than 0.4 percent. China is Australia's largest trading partner, and the recession does not bode well for the Australian dollar.

Exchange Rates 14.01.2019 analysis

Recall that last week both Australian and Kiwi rose by about 1.5 percent against the dollar amid hopes for a trade deal between the US and China, as well as more aggressive stimulation from the Chinese authorities to support the economy. And although the dollar rose slightly on Monday compared to the offshore yuan, there is still a forecast for the strengthening of the yuan against the dollar in the medium term, as markets have overestimated China's slowdown in economic growth. We did not see a significant weakening of the currency even after Beijing announced measures to ease monetary policy.

Performed by I Belozerov,
Analytical expert
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