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The euro fell in the first half of the day to the area of a minimum amid weak industrial production data, indicating the likelihood of a slowdown in economic growth in 2018. A further bearish trend in the EUR/USD pair gets more real.


According to the report, industrial production in the eurozone in November last year declined more significantly than expected. As noted in Eurostat, industrial production in the euro area fell by 1.7% in November compared with October. This is the biggest drop since February 2016. Economists had expected a decline in production of 1.3%. Germany, where production fell by 1.9%, and Spain, where the decline was marked by 1.6%, were among the leaders in countries where production was falling the fastest.

Exchange Rates 14.01.2019 analysis

Thus, the decline in industrial production in many European countries only confirms the weakening of the global economy.

This was noted in today's report of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which states that the growth rates of the United States and many other developed countries will continue to slow down this year. The only exception may be the Chinese economy, which shows signs of stabilization. But even here, a lot will depend on the trade agreement with the United States.

According to the data, the leading indicator for the US fell for the third month in a row, being at the level of 99.6 points. China's indicator rose to 98.9 points, indicating a less active slowdown in economic growth. The leading indicator of the eurozone is below the level of 100 points, indicating a continued slowdown in the pace of activity.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, it remained unchanged compared with the morning forecast. Buyers of risky assets need to go back to the resistance level of 1.1490 since the future direction will depend on it. If this fails to be done, then it is likely that the bears will continue to push the euro down to the support of 1.1425 and 1.1370.

UK and Brexit

The British pound continues its growth, which, apparently, is still more speculative. Traders positively perceived the information that the Prime Minister of Great Britain today sent a letter to Tusk and Juncker, in which she confirmed her intentions to carry out the decision made during the referendum. However, despite this, May is concerned about the fate of the Brexit deal, which is under threat due to concerns over Northern Ireland. The Prime Minister of Great Britain assured that the EU's concerns about the threat of a rigid border are groundless and negotiations will continue immediately after the vote in the UK. The focus of these negotiations will be on technology that will give up the guarantee of the absence of a rigid border.

In turn, Juncker and Tusk responded to May in the same style, sending her a letter with assurances regarding the Brexit deal, but adding that they would not agree to anything that changes the agreement or does not correspond to it. Juncker also noted that the EU will quickly work on a trade agreement in order to avoid applying the guarantee of the absence of a rigid border in Ireland.

All of these suggest that if the deal with the EU in the framework of a vote does not receive the support of parliamentarians tomorrow, the British pound may remain in the side channel until a final decision is reached since there are a lot of future development scenarios. Starting from the postponement of the exit of the UK from the EU, ending with indiscriminate exit without the adoption and approval of the basic laws.

The prospect of complete abolition of Brexit also has a place to be that will support the British pound when information appears about the next referendum on this matter.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Performed by Eder Anderson,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019
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