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Exchange Rates 12.07.2019 analysis

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair increased to the correction level of 50.0% (1.1278), rebound from it and return to it. A new rebound on July 12 from the Fibo level of 50.0% will work again in favor of the US dollar and some fall in the direction of the correction level of 38.2% (1.1238). The brewing bearish divergence of the CCI indicator only increases the chances of the beginning of the fall. Meanwhile, the euro was supported for two days by Jerome Powell, who spoke to two committees in Congress and made it clear that the Federal Reserve is ready to reduce the rate, which can be called preventive. In the last month, the economic performance of America has seriously decreased and slowed down. Only the labor market showed positive dynamics and only thanks to the Nonfarm Payrolls report. Thus, the Fed concluded that the pressure on the economy should be eased a little. And what about the euro? The situation in the European Union is no better, and perhaps even worse. The ECB rate may also be lowered, and economic indicators leave much to be desired for much longer than the "American month" (June). In this light, each rebound from the level of Fibo or bearish divergence can potentially return the forex market to the sales of the euro/dollar pair.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from March 20, 2019, and May 23, 2019.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has fulfilled the growth to the correction level of 50.0% (1.1278). I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.1238, with the stop-loss order above the level of 1.1278, if a new rebound from the level of 50.0% is executed, especially in conjunction with the bearish divergence. I recommend buying the pair with the target at 1.1318 and stop-loss order under the level of 1.1278, if the closing is above the level of 50.0%.


Exchange Rates 12.07.2019 analysis

The GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the English currency after the formation of a bullish divergence at the CCI indicator. The pound continues its sluggish growth towards the correction level of 76.4% (1.2661). On the topic of Brexit, new reports and the UK has not been reported, and all participants in this process seem to be focused on the election of the leader of the Conservative Party and the Prime Minister, or just waiting for the results of these elections. Earlier, on July 23, it is not worth waiting for any changes in Brexit. And even after July 23, some time should pass before any actions of the new government begin. The pound sterling "feels" this uncertainty and does not want to grow. The topic of the trade war between China and the United States also calmed down, although both countries agreed to resume negotiations. However, "agreed to resume" and "resumed" and "agreed" are not the same. Thus, it is possible that the next round of negotiations between Xi Jinping and Trump will fail, the parties will not be able to come to an agreement, and all duties will remain in force and will be seasoned with new trade sanctions, which will further slow down global economic growth, which will force Powell to reduce rates further. In general, as in any war, there will be no winners.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.


Exchange Rates 12.07.2019 analysis

As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a rebound from the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.2571), a fall to the correctional level of 100.0% (1.2506), a rebound from it and a turn in favor of the pound sterling. As a result, on July 12, the pair continues to grow again in the direction of the correction level of 76.4%. The new rebound from this level of Fibo will again work in favor of the US dollar and some falling of quotations.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of June 18, 2019, and June 25, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair performed the rebound from the Fibonacci level of 100.0%. I recommend buying the pair with the target at 1.2571, with a stop-loss order under the level of 1.2506, but in very small amounts. I recommend selling the pair with a view to 1.2506, if it will be rebounded from a Fibo level of 76.4% and with a stop-loss order above the level of 1.2571 (hourly chart).

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Performed by Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019
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