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The speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell in the Congress and the minutes of the June meeting of the FOMC gave a new impetus to the weakening of the US currency. However, it did not receive significant development.

Exchange Rates 16.07.2019 analysis

Strong inflation data in the US for June somewhat reduced the likelihood of a radical easing of the Fed's monetary policy and returned the yield of 10-year treasuries above 2%. Higher interest rates than in other developed countries still support the dollar against its main competitors since they make investments in US government bonds more profitable.

In connection with the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve, which will be held July 30-31, market participants are waiting with interest for new statistics from the United States to assess the state of the country's economy and monetary policy prospects.

Today, data on retail sales in the United States for June will be published.

It should be noted that the indicator is very volatile but it indicates trends in consumption, which is about 70% of US GDP.

Analysts expect the indicator to grow on a monthly basis by 0.1% after rising 0.5% a month earlier.

A slight increase is unlikely to lead to a strong strengthening of the USD. However, if the data turns out to be worse than the forecast, it will negatively affect the greenback in the short term.

Also today, a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at a conference in Paris, where he will read a report on the features of monetary policy in the post-crisis era.

Investors are now waiting for the chairman of the Federal Reserve to signal the prospects for monetary policy in the United States and the actions of the regulator at the next meeting.

It is assumed that if the head of the American Central Bank is too soft in his statements, then this will allow the bears to divert the USD rate even lower.

Performed by V Isakov,
Analytical expert
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