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Long-term review

The dollar was able to interrupt the losing streak and began to recover. Recall that the head of the New York Fed, John Williams, advocated proactive measures to "avoid the need to deal with too-low inflation and interest rates," as the dovish tone caused the dollar to fall. However, the dollar began to grow after the Fed noted that Williams's comments were not directly related to the regulator's policy. There will be no serious take-off in the short-term because investors still expect a rate cut this month by 25 basis points and some even by 50. One thing is for sure that the dollar has already won back these expectations and holds quite well. "Expectations of the Fed rate cut led only to moderate temporary weakness of the US dollar, which has recently become more apparent in relation to high-yielding currencies".

Exchange Rates 19.07.2019 analysis

The euro weakened by 0.2% to 1.1261 dollars but remained within the already familiar week range. Traders are not particularly active and are waiting for the ECB meeting to be held next week. The dollar showed itself particularly well in relation to the yen, rising by 0.3% to 10.70 yen. Also, the pound failed to withstand the dollar with a loss of 0.3% to 1.2515 dollars. British lawmakers did not even help the British currency, who approved the draft law. According to which, it would be more difficult for the new prime minister to "push" Brexit without a deal.

Exchange Rates 19.07.2019 analysis

You should now pay close attention to the currencies of developing countries. The weakness of the dollar and expectations of lower rates around the world will be a growth driver for them. If the Fed lowers interest rates, it will stimulate growth in investment in currencies of developing countries and other risky assets. For example, the New Zealand dollar rose by more than 1% this week. Lowering the Fed rate is likely to increase the attractiveness of high-yield Kiwi.

Performed by I Belozerov,
Analytical expert
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