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Exchange Rates 14.08.2019 analysis

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed the fourth rebound from the correction level of 61.8% (1.1224), a turn in favor of the US currency and consolidation under the correction level of 76.4% (1.1180). Thus, the fall of quotations of the euro/dollar pair may continue towards the next Fibonacci level of 100.0% (1.1107). Yesterday, the demand for the US dollar was caused by a fairly good inflation report in America for July. The foreign exchange market expected the consumer price index to rise to 1.7%, but in reality, the acceleration was +1.8% y/y. Today in Europe, economic reports will be released on GDP for the second quarter and changes in industrial production in June. However, these are not final values, but only preliminary, so traders should not expect too strong reactions. Although if the values are very weak, the market may well start to sell the euro again. Although, based on the picture in the illustration, traders without reports from the eurozone are ready for new sales of the European currency. Meanwhile, Donald Trump abolished the introduction of duties on a certain list of goods from China, which were to take effect on September 1. What is it? A step back? It is unlikely, given the message of the US President on Twitter that "China is not fulfilling the agreements" reached during the G20 summit in Osaka, and "does not buy more agricultural products from American farmers." However, the abolition of the introduction of part of the duties could be regarded as a mitigation of the conflict.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of May 23, 2019, and June 25, 2019.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has completed the closing under the correction level of 76.4% (1.1180). Today, I recommend selling the EURUSD pair with the target of 1.1107, with the stop-loss order above the level of 1.1180. I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1.1224 and stop-loss order under the level of 1.1180, if closing is performed above the correction level of 76.4%.


Exchange Rates 14.08.2019 analysis

The bullish divergence of the MACD indicator stopped the next fall of the pound sterling. There has been little news on Brexit in recent days, and there has been no positive news for a long time. But there is information about the population of Great Britain. The first news says that the majority of the population (54%) supports the exit from the EU on October 31 in any scenario, including hard, that is, they support the policy of Boris Johnson. However, the survey was conducted among only 2,000 respondents, so it can only approximate the mood among the British population. But the second message says that the British began to prepare for a tough Brexit, buying essential goods, provisions, and spending a total of about 4 billion pounds. In general, this does not mean anything good for the pound sterling. It is clear as day that even those who support Brexit "No Deal" fear this scenario. Because it does not bode well for the economy of the Kingdom, and accordingly it does not bode well for the welfare of the British population. And by the way, it should be remembered that about 2.5 months remain until October 31, and Boris Johnson is now more engaged in skirmishes with the EU, accusing the Alliance of not wanting to revise the Brexit agreement. And at the same time, shifting the responsibility in the eyes of the public to the EU government. Few people believe that in 2.5 months, the parties will be able to at least start new negotiations, so the UK will really have to decide on its own what to do with Brexit. I remind you that Johnson cannot decide the fate of the country, he needs the support of the majority of deputies in Parliament.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.


Exchange Rates 14.08.2019 analysis

As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair returned to the correction level of 261.8% (1.2057) after the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator. The closing of the pair under the correction level of 261.8% will work in favor of the US currency and the continuation of the fall in the direction of the next correction level of 323.6% (1.1883).

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of June 18, 2019, and June 25, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair resumed the process of falling. Thus, I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.1883, with the stop-loss order above the level of 261.8%, if the closing is performed under the level of 261.8%. I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1.2227 and stop-loss order under the level of 261.8% (hourly chart) if a rebound from the level of 1.2057 is performed.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Performed by Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019
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