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On Thursday, the release of British data on retail sales for July showed an increase of the indicator by 0.2% against the pessimistic forecast of -0.3%. By lunchtime, the pound grew 100 points against the rest of the market, almost reaching the first rising target, but by the evening, after the release of US retail sales data, it lost more than half of this growth - the US retail sales added 0.7%. As a result, the pound closed the day with a growth of 34 points.

Exchange Rates 16.08.2019 analysis

Thus, the convergence on the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart still worked, and the likelihood of a further decrease due to the worked convergence increased. But for the price, convergence only worked out with a minimal change, growth can continue to the next target level of 223.6% Fibonacci (1.2230). But there are no external prerequisites for this yet - good construction data is expected in the United States today: the number of bookings of new houses in July could grow from 1.25 million to 1.26 million, the indicator of issued permits for the construction of a new house can show growth from 1.23 million y/y to 1.27 million y/y. As a result, we are waiting for the implementation of the main scenario - price consolidation in the range of 1.1986-1.2032. The target range is formed by Fibonacci levels of 1.1986-1.2032.

Exchange Rates 16.08.2019 analysis

On a smaller four-hour chart, the price develops between the balance land MACD lines, the Marlin oscillator indicates growth - here the situation is neutral.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Performed by Laurie Bailey,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019
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