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Exchange Rates 20.09.2019 analysis

This week, the black gold market experienced unprecedented volatility, having experienced ups and downs, as well as a reduction in the Fed rate. According to analysts, this gave strength for further growth.

Economists recorded volatility in the oil market throughout the week. Oil prices rose to the maximum values, then fell sharply by 6%. The reason for this was the attack on the refinery in Saudi Arabia earlier this week. In the future, the market will focus on the restoration of oil production at Saudi facilities, analysts believe. At the moment, some refineries managed to be put in order. In October, Saudi Arabia expects to return to previous production levels. At the moment, the supply of black gold is made through the use of reserves. The incident in the Kingdom caused the largest in world history disruptions in the extraction of raw materials.

After the attack on oil facilities, Saudi Arabia is trying to negotiate with foreign producers to buy crude oil and other petroleum products to make up for its supplies. After the incident, the level of production in the Kingdom decreased by almost 50%, experts emphasize. The sharp decline in oil exports from Saudi Arabia has harmed the entire global supply chain. The authorities of the Kingdom had to negotiate with Iraq and ask it for about two million barrels to maintain oil exports at the proper level.

"Black Swan", that is, recent force majeure circumstances seriously touched the black gold market with its wings. Experts do not exclude the redistribution of the oil market and the loss of leading positions of Saudi Arabia. Currently, companies from Qatar, UAE, USA, Russia, and Iraq have become more active in the oil market. They offered their raw materials, which turned out to be in demand.

Exchange Rates 20.09.2019 analysis

The Saudi authorities have to restructure and operate in extremely constrained conditions, in particular, to replace some types of oil with others, of lower quality. For example, Saudi Aramco will not be able to supply Indian refiners with the premium Arab Light crude they have ordered. Instead, the corporation will send them heavy low-grade oil.

The black gold market is at a loss amid the contradictions between the growth of commercial reserves in the United States and the tense situation in the Middle East. As a result, the cost of the brand Brent increased by 2.8% to $65.36 per barrel. It is currently trading between $64.87 and $64.94 per barrel.

Futures for WTI crude oil rose by 1.6% to $59.01 a barrel. In the morning trading, the growth of oil prices stopped: the value of Brent fell by 0.3%, and WTI – by an impressive 0.14%. The price of light oil approached $58.77 per barrel. A day earlier, it was hovering in the range of $58.64 – $63.36 per barrel.

Exchange Rates 20.09.2019 analysis

According to experts, oil completed the growth momentum, reaching $65.30 and adjusting around $64.30. Analysts predict the exit from this range up to the level of $67.67. If the low is updated near the mark of $63.44, the continuation of the correction and further falls are not excluded. However, experts believe that the main scenario is the continuation of the upward trend to the level of $71.30. Most experts are positive and predict a rise in the black gold market.

Performed by Larisa Kolesnikova,
Analytical expert
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