Hello, dear colleagues!
Yesterday's publication of the minutes of the October meeting of the Open Market Committee did not lead to the expected volatility and sharp price movements. The protocols turned out to be about nothing and were ignored by market participants. But still, some points are worth highlighting.
The heads of the Fed still sees the risks to the US economy due to the continuing trade confrontation between the US and China. There are no plans to ensure market liquidity in the long term. Risks to the US economy due to weak growth rates around the world were also highlighted. Some FOMC members have indicated a lower probability of a recession in the medium term.
Please, these are the main theses to which you can pay at least some attention. In general, the standard phrases and formulations to which market participants have become accustomed and therefore have not found catalysts for action.
Daily
Yesterday's attempts by the bears to drive the price back to the limits of the Ichimoku cloud were unsuccessful. There was only a long shadow in the cloud, and the closing price of the session was above the upper limit and amounted to 1.1072.
Nevertheless, the shape of yesterday's candle does not give sufficient grounds to expect further growth. The strong and important level of 1.1080 is still holding back the attempts of the euro to raise the quote higher.
At the same time, I would like to note that three consecutive daily candles have closed above the upper border of the cloud, which indicates a high probability of a true exit upwards. But what about yesterday's candle and the resistance in the area of 1.1080-1.1089? The candle for November 20 should be absorbed by growth, and the specified resistance zone should be broken. There is no other alternative for players to increase the rate. As yet there is no driver for such an important and difficult breakthrough.
The situation for EUR/USD bulls is complicated by the Kijun line and its exponent, which are in the designated resistance zone and are likely to provide strong resistance to growth attempts. It is worth noting that the longer the pair trades below 1.1080 and cannot overcome this level, the more chances for a reversal. As you know, if the market cannot move up, there is a movement in the opposite direction.
If this happens, the targets at the bottom will be 1.1064 (the upper border of the cloud), 1.1052 (yesterday's lows), as well as the price zone 1.1042-1.1039, where 55 MA and the Tenkan line are located.
In my opinion, the pair stubbornly holds near 1.1080, it is still most likely to break up. In this case, the euro/dollar bulls' targets will be 1.1097, 1.1108 and 1.1140. Further reference points for possible growth — this is another fairly strong area of resistance around 1.1180.
Now, about the possible catalysts.
Today, the market may be shaken by the performances of FOMC members Mester and Kashkari. From macroeconomic statistics, it is worth paying attention to primary applications for unemployment benefits, the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index, as well as housing sales in the secondary market.
According to trading ideas, buying pairs look the most priority. For those who agree with this opinion, buy after rollbacks in the price range 1.1070-1.1025. Another option, for those who use the breakdown strategy, you can try to buy on the breakout of 1.1080 and (or) 1.1089.
For potential sales, we monitor the characteristic bearish candlestick signals on H4 and H1 when the pair rises to the price zone 1.1075-1.1085.
Successful trading!
