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17.01.2020 12:38 AM
USD/JPY: although the dollar has momentous plans, it is too early to write off the yen

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Nissay Asset Management believes that the greenback should support the continued demand of Japanese investors for US Treasury bonds.

"We already saw USD/JPY support when the pair fell below 108 last week," said Toshiya Matsunami, a Nissay analyst.

"US Treasuries will remain in the spotlight of Japanese funds as they continue to search for sources of profit abroad over the low interest rates at home. Funds may avoid buying debt in emerging markets, given their vulnerability to political risks. The dollar is expected to grow, supported by strong US economic data in 2020," he added.

The expert predicts that by the end of the year USD/JPY may rise to 112. However, it does not exclude that in case the pair sharply grows, the level of 115 can be reached.

"The uncertainties associated with the two main risks that have affected investor sentiment over the past two years, the trade dispute between the US and China and Brexit, have decreased, easing investor concerns about the damage to the global economy. Therefore, the USD/JPY trading range seems to be gradually shifting upward, to 110-115 from 105-110," said Kengo Suzuki, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities.

Meanwhile, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank experts doubt the potential for further USD/JPY growth.

According to them, the pair became vulnerable to sales after the signing of the first phase of the US and China trade deal.

"The trade agreement was priced. At the same time, uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the start of the second stage of negotiations, as well as the implementation of the provisions of the first stage. If the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing stall, then USD/JPY may drop to 106-107," the analysts said.

Viktor Isakov,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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