4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper channel of linear regression: direction - upward.
The lower channel of linear regression: direction - downward.
The moving average (20; smoothed) - down.
CCI: -114.2520
Today, January 27, the EUR/USD currency pair begins with an extremely weak upward correction, which in the future may reach the moving average line. At least the correction is now indicated by the Heiken Ashi indicator. However, as is often the case on Mondays, the volatility of the pair may decrease, even taking into account the current and already low values, and the trend movement of intraday may be absent. Thus, in principle, we do not expect anything supernatural from the pair today. This week, there will be a sufficient amount of macroeconomic information, as well as meetings of the Fed and the Bank of England, so traders will have something to react to during the week. Today, on Monday, against the background of an empty calendar of macroeconomic events, it is unlikely that any of the traders will force events and rush headlong to buy or sell the euro currency.
Meanwhile, former US Presidential Assistant for National Security John Bolton is writing a book about his memories. The book has not yet been published, but excerpts from its manuscript have already become known. One such passage says that it was Donald Trump who froze military aid to Ukraine. John Bolton himself and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on Trump to "unfreeze" aid about 10 times, but the US President refused each time because he believed that the Ukrainians cooperated with Hillary Clinton in 2016 and did not want him to win the presidential election. Also in an excerpt from the book, it is said that Donald Trump personally told Bolton that he intends to continue to freeze all military assistance to Ukraine until the local government helps him with the investigation of the activities of Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden in Ukraine. Bolton also spoke about how the case with Ukraine developed during the entire period until he left the White House in September 2019. Bolton said that Trump despised Ukraine, and other senior officials tried to avoid participating in the confrontation with Ukraine. If all that is said above is true, then the key points of the American President's defense will be undermined. After all, John Bolton can repeat all this in the Senate, where the case of Trump's impeachment is currently taking place.
In addition to excerpts of John Bolton's book, a recording of an hour and a half of Donald Trump's lunch with businessman Lev Parnas and personal lawyer Rudolph Giuliani was released online. It is unclear who conducted the hour-and-a-half video shoot. However, the record proves that Donald Trump was familiar with Giuliani's associates Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman, who are key figures in the impeachment investigation, and who was charged last year with illegally financing the presidential campaign of Donald Trump.
Well, Donald Trump himself, via his favorite Twitter, rejected all of John Bolton's accusations, saying: "I never told John Bolton that helping Ukraine is related to the investigation of Biden's activities. He never complained about this during his public dismissal. If John Bolton said this, it was only to sell his book." Given previous research on the number of Trump's statements that are not true or misleading, according to which it is equal to 15 messages a day, it is not surprising that the US leader immediately "refuted" all of Bolton's statements. Trump also said once again that he met with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the UN and provided military assistance without any conditions or investigations.
We tend to believe the prosecution's position, and even the Senate can't ignore all the new evidence and testimony now. We still believe that Trump will not be removed from his post, but if with such a high-profile investigation, where there is enough evidence of his illegal actions, he will be able to win the presidential race in November. This will be really something fantastic and will clearly show that the American people are more interested in domestic problems, tax legislation and the standard of living under a particular President, rather than the President's violations of the laws of the country.
The average volatility of the euro-dollar currency pair is currently 42 points. Thus, we have volatility levels of 1.0984 and 1.1068 as of January 27. A downward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator will indicate a resumption of the downward movement. From a technical point of view, the downward trend is visible to the naked eye, and the fundamental background allows for continued downward movement.
Nearest support levels:
S1 - 1.1017
S2 - 1.0986
S3 - 1.0956
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 - 1.1047
R2 - 1.1078
R3 - 1.1139
Trading recommendations:
The euro-dollar pair started to adjust. Thus, sales of the European currency with the goals of 1.1017 and 1.0986 are relevant now, but after the end of the current round of correction. It is recommended to return to buying the EUR/USD pair with the goal of 1.1108 not before fixing the price above the moving average line, but even in this case, it should be remembered that the bulls remain extremely weak, and there are no fundamental factors for the pair's growth.
In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of the illustrations:
The upper channel of linear regression - the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.
The lower channel of linear regression - the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.
CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi - an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
Possible variants of the price movement:
Red and green arrows.
