The single European currency, like a racing car, rolled out to the starting position, waiting for a signal to start the race. Carefully standing at the support level, I am prepared to start. The only question is, where does this route lead? Up or down?
At the same time, the investor already did not give a damn about what was happening with American statistics after the single European currency was skillfully brought to the starting position. Indeed, in theory, an increase of 2.4% in orders for durable goods should have led to a significant increase in the dollar. The growth of orders means the rapid completion of the decline in industrial production, which means there is reason for optimism. In addition, the growth rate of housing prices accelerated from 2.2% to 2.6%. Therefore, there was a reason to be happy. However, the dollar stood still, as if waiting for something.
Durable Goods Orders (United States):
Everyone is waiting for the outcome of today's meeting of the Federal Committee on Open Market Operations, and they will almost certainly simply ignore all other news and macroeconomic data. So what are we waiting for? Probably the only thing no one doubts is that the refinancing rate will remain unchanged. But what will happen to it next, raises a number of questions. Moreover, given the cost of interest rate futures, investors expect this refinancing rate to remain unchanged until next year and the Federal Reserve hopes to hear at least veiled confirmation of such expectations. Even though it is not strange, it can play to the good of the dollar. After all, the European Central Bank, although it made it clear that it is preparing for changes in its monetary policy, still did not give guarantees, that it will be precisely in raising the refinancing rate. The answer to this question will only be answered at the end of this year. At the same time, Christine Lagarde made it clear that, if necessary, the refinancing rate may even be reduced. This possibility still exists. Well, the Bank of England is guaranteed to reduce the refinancing rate, and no later than mid-summer. So against this background, the stability of the Federal Reserve's refinancing rate looks like a supporter of calm and confidence. And for investors, this is often just what they need. Nevertheless, everything will depend on what Jerome Powell will say.
From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a local jump of the psychological level of 1.1000, where the quote almost rebounded immediately. The regularity factor, relative to the control level, remains on the market, which puts pressure on the quote and forms a slowdown within it.
In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we see an impressive downward move, which is the structure of the recovery process, regarding an elongated correction. In turn, the psychological level of 1.1000 is the control coordinate, where, depending on the point of fixing the price, the recovery rate will depend.
It is likely to assume that the psychological level of 1.1000 will continue to exert pressure on the quote, where, in conjunction with the upcoming meeting, the Fed received local stagnation. It is worth considering that a stop will most likely serve as a subsequent acceleration, which should be prepared for. Meanwhile, regarding the current fluctuation, it can be assumed that the values of 1.0990 / 1.1035 may become time frames.
Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:
- Long positions are considered in case of price fixing higher than 1.1045, local transactions.
- Short positions are considered in case of price fixing lower than 1.0990, not a puncture in the shadow of a candle.
It is worth considering that there may be local bursts due to the continuing uncertainty and the background of the Fed.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments unanimously maintain a downward interest in all time intervals.
