EUR/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! On April 1, the euro/dollar pair continued the process of falling after fixing under the upward trend line. Thus, the mood of traders is now characterized as "bearish". I built a new downward trend line that now supports bear traders. Before closing the pair's rate above this line, I do not recommend buying the euro currency. At the same time, from my point of view, the US currency can stop growing at any time. The COVID-2019 epidemic is spreading most rapidly in America. US President Donald Trump at the beginning of the week made some absolutely unpleasant statements about the number of possible victims of the virus. And these figures, which have also been confirmed by doctors and scientists, look very scary. Trump admits that the losses among the American population will be from 100 to 200 thousand people. And the peak of the epidemic can be expected no earlier than in two weeks. Thus, the US economy will decline more and more in the coming weeks.
EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair made a consolidation under the corrective level of 38.2% (1.0964). Yesterday, I said that this closing is a necessary condition for the continuation of the fall in quotes. However, during the night trading, the pair's quotes did not continue the process of falling, but performed a return to this level. Thus, the rebound from it and, possibly, a new trend line on the hourly chart will work again in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.0840). But closing above these two resistances will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% (1.1065).
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a fall to the corrective level of 38.2% (1.0965), but failed to secure under it. Thus, in the daily measurement, it is possible to rebound from this level with a reversal in favor of the European currency and a resumption of growth. However, you should monitor the lower charts more closely.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pair has a high chance of continuing the growth process, since the breakdown of the lower border of the "narrowing triangle" turned out to be false. Thus, it can be considered a rebound, not a breakdown. In the future, the euro/dollar pair has the ability to perform growth to the level of 1.1600, that is, to the upper line of the triangle.
Overview of fundamentals:
On April 1, business activity in manufacturing sectors in Germany and the European Union turned out to be worse than traders' expectations. The actual values are 45.4 and 44.5. The unemployment rate in the EU fell to 7.3%. The ISM manufacturing index in the US was 49.1 (higher than forecasts), and the ADP report showed a negative change in the number of employees by 27 thousand (forecasts were also much lower). Thus, we can conclude that the information background was on the side of the US currency yesterday. But will it be so today?
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - number of initial applications for unemployment benefits (14:30 GMT).
On April 2, only one report should attract the attention of traders - initial applications for unemployment benefits in America. A week earlier, their number was 3.283 million. This week, the numbers could be even worse - about 3.5 million. Such data may cause pressure on the US currency.
COT report (Commitments of Traders):
A new COT report will be released tomorrow. From the new report, I expect a reduction in the total number of contracts, both short and long. The overall activity of the pair has decreased this week, so I expect this option. But the absolute values of changes in short and long contracts among speculators and hedgers will show a possible trend in the coming weeks. For example, if the number of short contracts again decreases by a greater value than long, this will mean new growth prospects for the European currency. Although the overall advantage ("Total") is still on the side of short positions.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Since the pair closed below the trend line on the hourly chart, I now recommend selling with a target of 1.0840. As a signal to buy (and close sales), I recommend that you consider fixing quotes above the new trend line on the hourly chart and above the level of 1.0964. In this case, the goal is 1.1065.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
