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Exchange Rates 25.05.2020 analysis

In the US, oil quotes rose more than 75% this month. However, drilling activity reached historic lows after demand for oil fell due to quarantine.

Oil shale producers shut off drilling rigs at a record pace. In the future, they may even hesitate restoring the rigs, due to fears of another oil glut, which could provoke another collapse in oil prices.

According to ShaleProfile, the US relies on oil drilling, which accounts for 55% of the country shale production from wells drilled in the past 14 months.

"These are very large wells, much larger than the small ordinary onshore wells." described Tom Loughrey, President of Friezo Loughrey Oil Well Partners, LLC (FLOW). "We have these relatively large and numerous shale wells, but they are rapidly shrinking," he added.

According to IHS Markit, less than 20% of the expected total drop in US oil production this year will be due to the closure of existing wells. The vast majority of supply cuts will be directly due to these canceled drilling projects.

President of Dallas Fed, Robert Kaplan, said in an interview with Bloomberg, that most of the closed production will likely resume by the end of this year.

In Russia, President Vladimir Putin is set to develop a plan to support the country oil industry by June 15, relative to the OPEC + agreement.

Large oil field service companies are also ruled to be included in the government list of systemically important companies, thus, entitling them state support. According to Russia's Energy Minister Alexander Novak, the set production cuts may cause service companies to lose about 40% operating profit.

Russia promises to seek strict compliance with the terms of agreement, until the next OPEC + meeting scheduled next month.

According to the Kremlin, while the OPEC + agreement is in effect, oil companies should not be sanctioned for failing to meet the set production cuts.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Performed by Andrey Shevchenko,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020
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